UK – MPC likely unanimous for now, labour market to continue to improve

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) view was likely unanimous at its June meeting in terms of keeping the bank rate unchanged. The minutes will likely show divergent outlooks within the MPC regarding how quickly inflationary pressures will return. 

The three-month average unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 5.4% in April. However, the claimant count rate, which is based on data from May, was likely unchanged at 2.3%; a sign that the pace of job creation is slowing. 

"We expect weekly earnings ex-bonuses to have accelerated to 2.5% y/y from 2.2% prior",says Standard Chartered.

Even though earnings growth remains below the long-run pre-crisis average of around 3-3.5%, it is still significantly above headline CPI, boosting employees' real incomes.