US ADP-NFP, ISM manufacturing likely to boost dollar; UK PMI to weaken GBP

Keeping Greece pressures aside, the focus have fallen on the UK manufacturing PMI and US ADP employment reports, as well as the final estimate of the euro zone manufacturing PMI.

Evidence of a stronger tone of manufacturing activity in the euro zone in June has set a stage for Euro getting rid of Greece issues but UK manufacturing PMI has disappointed today by flashing at 51.4 from previous 51.9 in May.

On the flip side, today the US ADP employment report for June will provide as guidance to official nonfarm payrolls (NFP), released tomorrow because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

ADP numbers have not correlated particularly closely with surprises in NFP. We have penciled in a rise of 219k for ADP private payrolls and a 235k rise in official NFP. A tightening labour market, as well as the possibility of a strong rebound in Q2 GDP growth, would provide the motive for the Fed to start raising interest rates as soon as September.

The US manufacturing ISM today is also expected to have stabilized at 53.2 from previous lackluster numbers (52.8).

Those who think pounds gains against dollar are not sustainable and to correct upto 1.5494 levels or even 1.5198 could also be fairly priced levels, the unsystematic risks can be hedged using (1%) In-the-Money vega Puts.