U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (July), S&P Case-Shiller House Prices (May)

Consumer confidence was knocked down in the U.S., and Canada, in July, sparked in some measure by turmoil in overseas markets. Not much should be read into one month's move but it is not encouraging on the spending front, if it persists. U.S. consumer confidence took a big spill in July. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell more than expected this month, down 8.9 pts first drop since April to 90.8, the lowest level since last September. And to make this even worse, June was revised lower. Concerns about what's happening right now weighed present situation' fell 2.9 pts to a 3-month low of 107.4 but worries about the future weighed more expectations took a 12.9 pt dive, the most since August 2011, or when the U.S. lost its AAA rating.

There were easily a handful of issues that would have kept consumers up at night except those in the Mountain region, East South Central and the South Atlantic, all of those stories about Greece, fears about China and their stock market plunge and, closer to home, the looming interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve that would take rates 25 bps higher from near zero. It will be interesting to see how much of this decline is retraced in August. Perhaps a bit more disturbing, however, was the weaker reading on jobs. More survey respondents, on net, found jobs harder to come by in July. That hasn't happened in three months and it suggests that, the jobless rate may tick higher from its current 7-year low of 5.3%. However, the two do not always move in lock-step.

"House prices slipped for the second month in a row, which is good for those who are trying to buy their first home, but not so good for those who were thinking of selling. House prices in the top 20 metropolitan areas across the U.S., as measured by S&P Case Shiller, fell 0.2% in May, and the gains from a year ago eased for the first time this year, to +4.9% from +5.0% in April. In case this doesn't sound familiar, the data were revised; April's 0.3% monthly gain is now a 0.03% drop. This is a far cry from the double-digit increases seen during 2013/2014 but still, it is not a bad thing considering that those who want to be home owners for the first time are struggling, given rising prices and inventories which still lack. Half of the major metro areas saw prices slip in May, with the biggest decliner being Chicago, followed by San Francisco. But nationwide house prices were flat for the 2nd month in a row in May, and held steady around 4.4% y/y, which is where it has hovered so far in 2015" says BMO Economics.