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U.S. Data Release: Real GDP Q2 2015, 1st Estimate & annual revision

 

The economy grew by 2.3% annualized in the second quarter of 2015 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of real GDP. This was slower than the consensus estimate of 2.5%, but the disappointment was tempered by a significant upward revision to first quarter to from 0.2% to +0.6% annualized.

Somewhat unexpectedly, annual revisions lowered the estimated pace of real GDP over the past three years 2011 to 2014 to an annual average rate of 2.0% from previously published 2.3%. The downward revisions were concentrated prior to last year, with the annual average for 2012 revised down 0.1 percentage points and 2013 revised down 0.7 percentage points, while 2014 headline remained unchanged.

"In terms of components, real personal consumption expenditures grew by 2.9% in the second quarter, ahead of the consensus forecast for 2.7%. Growth was led by durable goods spending +7.3%. Spending on non-durable goods rose 3.6%, while spending on services was up 2.1%", says TD Economics.

Declining drilling activity, which fell even more than in the first quarter, continued to pull down non-residential structures investment. However, overall structures investment fell by a much more modest 1.6% in Q2 compared to -7.6% in Q2, as other structures investment categories such as commercial and manufacturing fared better. Equipment business spending was also lower, falling by 4.1%, while investment in intellectual property products rose 5.5%. Residential investment grew 6.6% helped along by higher housing starts and existing home sales.

 

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