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The U.S. labor market likely maintained its resilience in May, although job growth is expected to have moderated after two months of stronger gains. Economists believe the latest employment data will show that hiring activity remains consistent with a stable labor market despite rising inflation concerns linked to higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to economist forecasts, U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely increased by approximately 85,000 jobs in May, down from 115,000 in April and 185,000 in March. While hiring has slowed, the projected increase remains above the average monthly job growth recorded so far in 2026, indicating continued labor market stability.
Analysts say government tax and tariff refund programs have helped support corporate earnings, allowing many businesses to avoid significant layoffs despite economic uncertainty. As a result, the labor market continues to operate in what economists describe as a “slow-hire, slow-fire” environment, where hiring remains cautious but job cuts stay limited.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, marking the third consecutive month at that level. Some economists suggest the figure could edge up to 4.4%, though such a move would still support the broader view of a relatively balanced labor market.
The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has contributed to a sharp rise in oil prices, pushing gasoline costs more than 40% higher and increasing inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, economists believe these developments have not yet caused major disruptions to employment trends.
Several industries are expected to influence May’s payroll figures. Healthcare continues to generate steady job gains due to demographic trends and rising demand for services. Leisure and hospitality hiring may also benefit from preparations for upcoming international soccer tournaments. Meanwhile, transportation employment could face pressure following restrictions affecting commercial driver licensing for non-U.S. citizens, while federal government payrolls may continue to decline.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged as policymakers monitor the impact of higher energy prices and inflation. With layoffs remaining historically low and businesses maintaining cautious hiring strategies, economists expect the U.S. labor market to remain stable through the remainder of 2026, though risks of slower growth and a gradual increase in unemployment persist.
