US Fed prudent to wait

The Minutes of the September FOMC meeting was not expected to offer new signals regarding the timing of the first rate hike. First of all because FOMC chair Yellen had the opportunity to communicate at the press conference following the meeting. 

Secondly, because the September FOMC meeting preceded the disappointing labour market report and ISM report. A majority of FOMC members believed that "the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year." 

The tone regarding the labour market was fairly upbeat, again the Minutes preceded the release of the September Labour Market report, as the FOMC members agreed that labour market conditions had improved considerably since the beginning of the year, whereas a few members even saw the unemployment gap having been eliminated.

Still, "the Committee decided that it was prudent to wait for additional information confirming that the economic outlook had not deteriorated" Recent global economic and financial market developments were mentioned as risks and both China and the rest of Emerging Markets were mentioned several times. 

The FOMC seemed especially concerned that weaknesses abroad could lead to a further appreciation of the USD that, in turn, would depress inflation in the near term.

"The Minutes does not give reason to change the forecast of a first rate hike in December. The Fed is ready to hike, as indicated today. However, it will require somewhat stronger labour market reports in October and November and maybe even slightly less risks from abroad", says Nordea Bank.