The U.S. Treasuries continued their weeklong slide on Friday as markets now stand in anticipation of the September employment report to finish off the week. Overall, little new was seen on Thursday as markets were greeted by further improvement in weekly jobless claims data that broke below the 250k-mark and reached their lowest level since 16 April.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 1.73 percent, the yield on 5-year bond jumped 2 basis points to 1.27 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note climbed nearly 1 basis point to 0.85 percent by 11:00 GMT.
US Initial jobless claims for the week ending 1 October August decreased -5k to 249k, below expectations for a 256k result, as compared to the unrevised 254k reading seen in the week prior. The 4-week average was reported at 253.5k, down from the unrevised 256.0k reading seen in the week prior. Meanwhile, continuing claims for week ending 24 September decreased to 2.058 million, versus the 2.064 million reading seen prior. The insured unemployment rate held unchanged at 1.5 percent.
Markets now await September employment report on Friday which could go a long way in bolstering calls for some policy action before year-end as the Fed remains supported by further improvement in employment conditions alongside gradually warmer inflation readings.
Moreover, the September Labor Department employment situation report will be released on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Overall, we expect non-farm payrolls will increase +180k in September (market expectations are for a +175k increase), versus the +151k reading seen in August, alongside no change in the unemployment rate of 4.9 percent (market expectations are for a 4.9 percent result). Great focus will likely be paid to gains in total private employment which we expect will increase around +170k.
Beyond the headline, we expect average hourly earnings will increase +0.2 percent m/m, alongside an increase in weekly hours to 34.4. On balance, despite the volatility seen in recent months, we anticipate further improvement taking hold in the coming months as conditions gradually improve. Given the greater focus on what the Fed is likely to do next following liftoff in December, we anticipate the September employment report will be sufficiently strong enough to justify additional moves higher (though other factors and subsequent reports will likely keep policymakers second-guessing).
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures traded 4.50 points lower at 2,148.50 by 11:10 GMT.


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