US-Iran War: Trump Eyes Military Exit as Markets React to Potential De-escalation

President Donald Trump signaled that the United States is nearing the end of its military campaign against Iran, stating the offensive has largely achieved its core objectives — degrading Tehran's missile capabilities and dismantling its defense industrial base. The announcement sparked an immediate market rally, with an S&P 500-tracking ETF climbing 0.9% in after-hours trading as investors began unwinding the regional "war premium."

Despite the optimistic tone, hostilities continue on multiple fronts. Iran's Natanz nuclear facility was struck for the second time since the conflict began, though Iranian officials confirmed no radioactive leakage occurred. Separately, an Iranian missile hit the Israeli town of Dimona — home to a key nuclear facility — injuring dozens. Iran also launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. While both missiles reportedly missed their target, the move signals a notable expansion of Iran's strike range beyond prior Western intelligence assessments, raising fresh concerns over Indian Ocean trade route security and maritime insurance costs.

On the strategic front, US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed that American forces have significantly reduced Iran's ability to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting coastal missile storage sites, radar networks, and intelligence infrastructure.

Trump's exit strategy centers on the complete neutralization of Iran's naval and air forces, permanent suppression of any nuclear enrichment ambitions, and sustained protection of regional allies including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. In a notable policy shift, Trump argued that nations dependent on the Strait of Hormuz — not the US — should bear primary responsibility for securing the waterway, citing America's energy independence as justification for a reduced long-term role.

For global markets, the transition from active combat to a regional security model represents a significant geopolitical turning point, with long-term implications for energy transit stability and commodities pricing worldwide.