U.S. Leading Economic Index rises in April, strong growth likely to persist in H2 2018

The U.S. Leading Economic Index rose in the month of April. The index rose 0.4 percent, underpinned by widespread component strength. The rise implies that strong growth is expected to persist in the second half of this year, noted Wells Fargo in a research report. Growth in the Coincident and Lagging indices rose 0.3 percent in April. Stock prices and housing permits were just the only negative contributors in the month. The interest rate spread remains the top contributor to the index, but its strength has faded more recently as the yield curve has flattened.

The components related to the labor market, initial jobless claims and manufacturing hours worked, reversed last month’s slide, contributing 0.10 and 0.13 percentage points, respectively. The weak and hard data continue to underpin one another, a signal of stable and balanced growth. The April print adds further evidence that the economic growth will continue through 2018, and implies that the Fed will continue to administer rate hikes, added Wells Fargo.

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