U.S. NFIB small business optimism index rises again in April

Small business optimism in the U.S. rises in April. The NFIB index rose for the third consecutive month, rising 1.7 points to 103.5. Labor market indicators continue to be extremely positive, yet hiring at small companies has started to ease. Trade might weigh in on the index, noted Wells Fargo in a research report. Most of the rebound in the headline index the last three months reflects some relief in the stock market recovered to start the year, but the underlying components reflect a historically solid labor market.

Plans to increase hiring were up two points in April. Finding quality labor continues to be a top concern, and is perhaps behind the decelerating trend in small business seen in the ADP jobs report.

“Escalating trade hostilities the past week will challenge small businesses, which have less bargaining power with suppliers and are therefore more susceptible to higher input costs”, said Wells Fargo.

Owners had already started implying that subdued sales were a rising concern, implying limited scope to pass on higher prices.

“Trade uncertainty will pressure the index in coming months, as capex plans remain subdued and market volatility returns”, added Wells Fargo.

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