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US Q3 GDP tracking 2.2% after July wholesale inventories

 

Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% m/m in July, well below (0.6%) and consensus (0.3%) expectations. June wholesale inventories were revised lower to 0.7% m/m from the initial estimate of 0.9% m/m. The decline in wholesale inventories in July was driven by nondurable goods (-0.5% m/m, previous: 1.9%). Wholesale drug inventories fell 3.2% on the month, after having declined 1.3% in June. Petroleum inventories fell 4.8% in July, likely due to price effects.

Wholesale inventories of durable goods grew 0.1% m/m in July, as a solid gain in automotive inventories (1.0% m/m, previous: 2.1%) was buffeted by the second consecutive decline in computer inventories (-0.5% m/m, previous: -2.5%).

"The downward revision to June wholesale inventories implies less overall inventory investment in Q2, which trimmed our Q2 GDP tracking estimate one-tenth, to 3.7%. Weaker-than-expected inventory growth in July led us to rebase our assumptions for overall inventory investment in the third quarter. We now expect a larger 1.1pp drag on GDP growth from inventories in Q3. This cut our Q3 GDP tracking estimate three-tenths, to 2.2%", says Barclays.

 

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