U.S. average hourly earnings to rise modestly

The remaining portions of the U.S. BLS establishment survey are expected to be lackluster. Wellworn calendar quirks associated with the early termination of this month's canvassing period - it ended on September 12 - suggest that average hourly earnings probably edged just 0.1% higher, after the above-consensus 0.3% increase posted in August. 

"Although it is expected to touch below the current median Street estimate, it would still push the year-to-year growth of the closely followed nominal  compensation measure one tick higher to 2.3% - the upper end of the range prevailing over the past six years. We continue to expect ever-tightening labor market conditions to propel the annual growth of private hourly earnings to 2.4% by Q4 and to 2.9% by the end of 2016. The timing of the establishment survey probably left the mean work span of all private employees six minutes shorter at 34.5 hours in September", said Scoiete Generale in a report on Thursday.

Almost completely offset by an anticipated 215,000 increase in private-sector jobs, our workweek forecast would leave total hours worked 0.1% lower last month, but the July September average for the nonfarm business output proxy a very solid 2.5% annualized above the spring-quarter mean.