U.S. consumer confidence likely to decline below the 100-point threshold mark in October

Consumer confidence in the United States is likely to have declined during the month of October, dropping below the 100-point threshold mark that separates optimism from pessimism. The October Conference Board consumer confidence report will be released on Tuesday, 25 October at 10:00EDT (14:00GMT).

We expect the headline measure to decrease to around 98.5 in October, versus the 104.1 reading that occurred in September.

The preliminary October Michigan headline measure decreased to 87.9, down from 91.2. On balance, despite the decreased reading in the headline, survey readings show the consumer in a stronger situation (as seen via the economic conditions: 105.5, from 104.2), offset by less support from expectations at 76.6, from 82.7.

Further, providing some concern for consumer remains any fallout stemming from financial concerns, leaving many on edge with respect to job prospects (though this has clearly faded amidst ongoing job market improvement) and credit conditions. This will likely continue to fade as conditions improve throughout 2016.

Meanwhile, September readings have been relatively mixed, though supported by relatively maintained improvement seen in jobless claims. All things considered, the headline measure is expected to post an overall decrease to around 98.0.