US economic surprise index surprises to upside

After falling from latter half of 2014 and terrible performance in first quarter US economic surprise index might be changing the direction, indicating US economy in better shape than expected. Chart courtesy Bloomberg.

Series of data released from US since last week, calling to forget the first quarter miss.

• Last week both building permits and building starts sharply turned upwards in April, shrugging of weakness in first three months of the year.
• Similarly US core CPI and Sticky price CPI both surprised to the upside growing at 0.3% m/m.
• Yesterday's release surprised further to the upside. Durable good order rose by 0.5% in April, excluding the transport.
• S&P/Case-Shiller house prices rose by 5% in March from a year ago.
• Preliminary reading for Markit PMI showed services sector bit weaker than before (57.4), however still strong at 56.4
• New home sales rose by 6.8% m/m in April.
• Consumer Confidence rose to 95.4 from 94.3 prior and beating estimate.
• Richmond FED manufacturing index rose to 1 from -3 prior.

Data so far pointing towards rebound and economic activity as if US economy is once again awake from winter hibernation.

However caution should still be exercised.

• Dallas FED manufacturing business index dropped to -20.8 from -16 prior.

Dollar is doing pretty well against major trading counterparts. Dollar index is up from 93.3 to 97 as of now.

Better economic dockets would keep fuelling USD to upside.