US home purchases at post-crisis high

In a week lacking in US indicators, it is assumed the market will mainly look at existing home sales. These are registered when the transaction is concluded and exhibit a slight lag behind "pending" home sales, which are recorded when the contract is signed. 

"With pending home sales having risen noticeably, the existing home sales are also expected to post a large gain, rising by a good 2% to an annualised 5.5 million in June (consensus: 5.4 million). Such a large number of property transactions was last seen in early 2007", says Commerzbank.

New home sales, which are also due next week, are less informative in our view because the monthly figures fluctuate heavily and are often subject to massive revisions. On the heels of the recent large gains, we expect to see a countermovement to 535,000 in June.