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Initial jobless claims fell 11k, to 260k, in the week ending November 21, well below forecast (275k) and consensus expectations (270k). The four-week average was unchanged at 271k. Non-seasonally adjusted claims were up 15.5% for the week. While there was nothing unusual in the data, claims for Louisiana were estimated because the state was switching to a new system for handling applications.
The decline in initial claims indicates that from the separations side, the job market continues to firm. Continuing claims for the week ending November 14 rose modestly, to 2.207mn, from the prior-week reading of 2.173mn (initial: 2.273mn). This week's continuing claims number is for the November employment survey week; they are up modestly from the October reference week, indicating a slight step back in the pace of employment gains between October and November.
"This softness is consistent with our view that employment growth will step down from 271k gains in October to 200k in November. The trend decline in continuing claims remains intact and is reassuring on the overall health of the economy, as the series is one of the best indicators of payroll growth. The four-week trend of 2.182mn (previous: 2.167mn) remains low from a historical perspective. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.6% in the latest week. Taken together, the details of this morning's report support our view that labor-market slack has continued to decline", says Barclays.
