US labor market separations continue to be at low levels, nonfarm payrolls likely rose 250k

US initial jobless claims for the week ending 30 April increased 17k to 274k, slightly more than consensus projection of 260k and Barclays’ expectations of 255k. The initial claims’ four-week moving average is at 258k, which is still quite low. In the week ended 23 April, continuing unemployed claims fell by 8k to 2.121 million, while the insured jobless rate declined to 1.5%, a new post-recession low.

Continuing claims’ four-week moving average dropped to 2.140 million, as compared with earlier 2.157 million. Labor market separations continue to be at low levels, noted Barclays. US nonfarm payroll gains are likely to rise by 250k, added Barclays.

This increase will show that growth in employment ticked higher from March’s gains of 215k and the Q1 average of 209k, noted Barclays. Within this, private payroll growth is expected to rise 240k, while net government hiring is likely to rise by 10k. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are likely to rise 2.4% y/y and 0.3% m/m. The household survey is expected to indicate that job growth pace is similar to the establishment survey, resulting in the jobless rate to fall by one-tenth to 4.9%, according to Barclays.