U.S. non-farm payrolls likely moderated in August, jobless rate to have remained steady at 3.7 pct

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for the month of August is set to release tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the payrolls are likely to have trended modestly lower to 145k in the month, following the 164k print in the previous month.

Job creation in the manufacturing sector is expected to mean-revert after two straight double-digit rises in June-July. Together with slower hiring in construction, this should bring employment in the goods sector back to its recent average. Meanwhile, employment in the services sector is likely to have moderated further from its strong July print.Also, the start of temporary census hiring for canvassing purposes raises the odds for an upside surprise in August.

“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7 percent, while we expect wages to rise 0.2 percent m/m, dragging the annual print lower to 3.0 percent in August”, added TD Economics.