U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely to have grown 175k in January – TD Economics

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for the month of January is set to be released tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the nonfarm payrolls are expected to have grown 175k in January, below its three-month average rate as adverse winter weather and some slowdown in employment surveys bias the figure lower. The jobless rate is expected to have dropped to 4 percent after staying at 4.1 percent in the earlier three months, as strong job growth and a stabilizing participation rate imply there is a possibility of a drop, stated TD Economics.

However, the focus is more on wages in January, while markets are likely to keep an eye on the upside surprise on the back of announcements of wage hikes and bonus increases by companies after the tax reform passage and the scheduled minimum wage hikes in 18 states and 20 cities.

The rises on balance indicate towards less than a 0.1pp m/m contribution to January average hourly earnings, similar to the effect in January 2017.

“We expect a 0.2 percent m/m increase, leaving earnings unchanged at 2.5 percent y/y”, added TD Economics.

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