U.S. payrolls likely dropped in May, jobless rate to have remained at 3.6 pct

U.S. payrolls data for the month of May is set to release later this week. According to a TD Economics research report, the payrolls are expected to have trended lower to 190k in the month, following an eye-popping 263k print recorded in the prior month. Especially, job creation in the manufacturing sector is expected to have stayed soft, remaining in the single-digit range for a fourth straight month. Similarly, a mean-revision in employment in the services sector after the 200k+ print in April.

“We do flag risks to the upside on the back of a larger-than-expected recovery in employment in the retail sector after three notable declines in Feb-April”, said TD Economics.

Overall, the household survey is likely to show that the jobless rate continued to be at 3.6 percent, while wages are likely to have risen 0.2 percent sequentially. The latter should bring the annual print down one-tenth to 3.1 percent.

“However, if the monthly growth rate were to round up to a “soft” 0.3 percent advance, that would keep wage growth unchanged at 3.2 percent y/y”, added TD Economics.

At 13:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was slightly bearish at -60.9717 more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex