US retail sales are likely to have slowed in May, following a sharp rise registered in April. Retail sales had grown 1.3 percent in April, the largest monthly growth since March 2015. It had alleviated worries regarding the consumers’ ability to recover after weak spending result registered in the first quarter of 2016.
In April, growth was wide-based, with almost every category contributing to the headline growth. Spending is expected to have relative eased broad-based in May. According to a Societe Generale’s research report, retail sales growth is likely to have slowed to 0.3 percent in May.
Auto sales last month had registered the same pace witnessed in April. Hence auto sales are likely to have contributed slightly to the headline growth. Gasoline prices grew in May by around 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis that might have pushed up the component to a growth of 0.5 percent.
Retail sales, stripping gasoline and autos, are expected to have slightly grown by 0.3 percent, said Societe Generale. The “control group” is expected to record a similar gain that feeds through to GDP.
“If our forecast comes to fruition, it would leave the control group about 5.1 percent annualized above the Q1 pace, leaving it on track for its fastest pace of growth since Q2 2014,” noted Societe Generale.
