USDCHF pared some of its gains after mixed US economic data. It hits an intraday low of 0.83578 and is currently trading around 0.83585. Intraday bias appears to be bearish as long as the resistance 0.8405 holds.
US retail sales rose 0.1% from month to month in April 2025, better than the predicted 0.0% unchanged. That small increase followed a strong 1.4% increase in March, driven by consumers purchasing tariff-sensitive items ahead of expected price hikes. The April rise shows moderation in consumer spending growth but also shows resilience to tariffs and a cautiously consumer-friendly environment. The new claims level was 229,000, the same as last week and in line with expectations. This steady level still indicates a strong labor market.
Headline PPI (Producer Price Index):
The April 2025 PPI inflation annual rate was 2.4%, from 2.7% in March.
Core PPI (PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services):
The underlying PPI inflation in April 2025 was at 2.9% year-on-year.
These numbers show headline as well as underlying producer inflation moderated in April, which shows reduced producer-level price pressures.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside
The pair is trading below the 34-EMA and 55-EMA below 200 EMA on the 4-hour chart indicates a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8378 any break above targets 0.8450/0.850/0.8520/0.8580/0.8625.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8320, any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8340/0.8320/0.8270/0.8230/0.8180/0.8135/0.8090/0.8000.
Bullish Indicators
CCI (50) - Bearish
Directional movement Index - Neutral
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8378-80 with a stop-loss at 0.8435 for a TP of 0.8190.
