USD/CHF: SNB's Cautious Tone Ignites Bullish Momentum

USDCHF jumped sharply on policy divergence between the US Fed and SNB. It hit an intraday high of 0.82791 and is currently trading around 0.82761. Intraday bias appears to be bullish as long as the support 0.8180 holds. 

During a speech on May 27, 2025, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said that even if Swiss inflation might go negative in the near term, the central bank would not necessarily respond immediately, stressing a concentration on medium-term price stability over short-term swings. Schlegel highlighted the SNB's commitment to its 0–2% target range—with the policy interest rate as the main tool—even if inflation dropped to 0% in April 2025 and noted the possibility for currency market interventions.

Schlegel also noted the influence of trade uncertainties—particularly those related to U.S. tariff policies—on market expectations for the SNB's June 19, 2025 meeting. These expectations include a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction to zero and a much lower chance of a bigger cut. Schlegel's comments mostly emphasized the SNB's careful approach, which gives long-term price stability top priority and keeps flexibility with its policy tools.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside

The pair is trading above the   55-EMA, below  200 EMA and 365 EMA on the 1-hour chart indicating a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.8280 any break above targets 0.8300/0.8350/0.8375.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8250, any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8200/0.8180/0.8135/0.8090/0.8000.

Bullish  Indicators

CCI (50) - Bullish

Directional movement Index -  neutral

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to buy on dips around 0.8258-60 with a stop-loss at 0.82220 for a TP of 0.8378/0.8405.