USD-NGN reaching 220 in Q3-2015: Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered notes..... For portfolio flows to resume, USD-NGN will need to move to a higher and moresustainable level. While we think the CBN will eventually allow this adjustment, and see USD-NGN reaching 220 in …
For portfolio flows to resume, USD-NGN will need to move to a higher and moresustainable level. While we think the CBN will eventually allow this adjustment, and see USD-NGN reaching 220 in Q3-2015, this seems unlikely for now.
Thus we expect the CBN to pursue its special intervention FX auctions at an exchange rate of around 197, and the US dollar (USD) demand backlog to persist.
The risk to an orderly devaluation process later this year comes from the rapid decline in FX reserves (USD 30.0bn on a 30-day moving average basis on 20 March) associated with the current FX stance.
Furthermore, fiscal and external fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure given the much lower oil price, even though we expect it to recover in H2-2015.
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