CBR had adopted free float this year, and since then USD/RUB and oil prices dispaly remarkable correlation, which is not surprising. Energy products make up a huge share in Russian exports.
The slippage in oil prices are undoubtedly a bad news for the rouble.
Last few days events gave markets further reasons to sell oil.
- OPEC refrained from cutting the production levels
- ECB disappointed the market expectations on QE
- Fed to begin the rate hiking cycle imminently.
"Imagine a situation in which oil prices plunge below 30 USD per barrel and we can easily see a situation in which USD-RUB trades at levels materially above current levels. Stay long USD-RUB", says Commerzbank in a research note.


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