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USD: Waiting for December lift-off

Sunday, November 15, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

The USD is likely to remain supported next week as the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) confirm the willingness of the board to begin the monetary normalization cycle as soon as December. With fed fund futures already pricing about a 70% chance of a hike this year, a modest upward move is expected in the USD as the market fully prices in December as the lift-off date. In that regard, inflation on Tuesday should point in the same direction, showing core CPI running close to 2.0% y/y, with strong readings in service-related sectors, which will probably stay near 3%.

"We expect manufacturing production to show an increase of 0.2% m/m despite continued USD strength. Overall, we remain constructive on the outlook for the US economy", notes Barclays.

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USD: Waiting for December lift-off

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