Monday brings the release of core PCE price data (08:30 ET) - a key inflation benchmark for the Fed.
Standard Chartered research notes, "we expect another 0.1% m/m print, in line with consensus, which would keep the y/y reading at 1.3%. Still-subdued core inflation supports the Fed's 'wait-and-see' stance; our long-held view remains that the Fed will wait until September to hike rates."
It adds, "we see personal spending rising only 0.1% m/m (consensus: 0.2%) on the back of recent weak retail sales data, after -0.2% in January. This would support our view that Q1 growth moderated to 1.0% q/q SAAR (2.2% in Q4; see 'At a glance, US - Fed hike in a time of lowflation'). We think poor weather hit pending home sales (10:00 ET); we expect a 2.5% drop (consensus: +0.3%m/m)."
Fed Vice Chair Fischer's speech is unlikely to bring surprises.
