USDA Plans to Expand Farmer Surveys to Improve Crop Report Accuracy

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is taking steps to improve the accuracy of its crop reports by increasing the number of farmers surveyed, following concerns over declining participation rates and data reliability. Officials from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced the initiative during a recent public data users’ meeting.

The move comes after the response rate for the March 31 planting intentions report dropped to 37.6%, significantly lower than last year’s 44.3% and marking the lowest level ever recorded for the survey. This decline has raised concerns about the precision of key agricultural data, especially after the USDA faced criticism for making unusually large adjustments to corn acreage estimates for the 2025 crop earlier this year.

To address these issues, the USDA plans to expand its survey sample size by approximately 35% for the June 30 acreage report, pending approval from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Additionally, the agency intends to increase sample sizes by about 10% for subsequent reports released in September, December, and March. According to NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons, these changes are expected to enhance data quality and provide more reliable estimates for major U.S. crops.

The USDA is also working to improve transparency by including more “plain language” explanations in its reports. These updates will help readers better understand the level of uncertainty associated with crop estimates, making the data more accessible to farmers, analysts, and policymakers.

In another effort to build trust, the agency is considering launching an annual report that compares its crop forecasts with final production totals after the marketing year ends. This initiative, which could begin as early as autumn, aims to evaluate forecast accuracy and strengthen confidence in USDA data.

The USDA recently gathered public feedback through a “Request for Information” survey conducted between February and April. Officials are currently reviewing the responses to guide future improvements in their statistical programs and reporting methods.