USDA expects record global wheat crop in 2015/16

The USDA made an unexpected - though only marginal - cut to its US wheat crop estimate, but increased its estimated figure for worldwide production by nearly 5 million tons because of Russia and Ukraine. On a global level, it is actually forecasting a new record crop of 726.5 million tons. The 2015/16 season began with lower global stocks than previously anticipated, primarily because EU wheat exports in 2014/15 were upwardly corrected once again, notes Commerzbank.

However, because the USDA increased its estimate for the global surplus in 2015/16 from just short of 8 million tons to 12 million tons, the envisaged ending stocks have also been further increased. This has meanwhile given rise to a considerable discrepancy between the USDA's figures and those of the International Grains Council, which at the end of July left its estimate of a small worldwide deficit unchanged, states Commerzbank.