USDCHF Slides on Dollar Weakness and Philly Fed Plunge: Bearish Signals Mount

USDCHF pared most of its gains on board-based US dollar selling. Currently trading at 0.78989, it reached an intraday low of 0.78732. 

With 23.2 in September and well below market expectations of 10.0, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -12.8 in October 2025, a dramatic fall. This suggests a significant decrease in industrial activity—the smallest since April 2025. Though the headline was modest, new orders (18.2) showed strong demand, whereas shipments (6.0) and employment (4.6) remained good but fell, and inflationary pressures persisted with the prices paid index rising to 49.2 and prices received to 26.8; survey replies revealed 25% of businesses reporting decreased activity, up from At 17% but future optimism grew; the Future General Activity Index reached 36.2, and 36% of producers planned greater capital spending in 2026, targeting automation and digitalization.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bearishness

The pair is trading below 55-EMA,  the 200 EMA, and above 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.7925; any break above targets  0.7960/0.8000/0.8020/0.8070.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7860; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7800/0.7765.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bearish

Directional Movement Index -  Bearish

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.7948-50 with SL around 0.8000 for a TP of 0.7