Vietnam Q2 GDP and June data likely to show steady growth

Vietnam will release Q2-2015 GDP data and key June data from 25-30 June, and June inflation data on 24 June. Steady GDP growth of 6.2% y/y is expected in Q2, up from 6.0% in Q1-2015 and 5.2% in Q2-2014. 

Standard Chartered notes:

• The FDI outlook is encouraging given the country's rising profile as a regional manufacturing hub, and we forecast that the industry/construction sector led growth in Q2. 
  
  
• We expect inflation of 0.8% y/y in June, down from 0.95% in May, on a low base effect and subdued demand. 
  
  
• Food prices, the largest component of the CPI basket, have been muted so far in Q2. The benign inflation outlook should provide room for policy rate cuts in 2015. 
  
  
• We expect industrial production, export and import growth to have picked up y/y, versus May. Retail sales likely fell 8.8% y/y in June on subdued domestic demand.