China's customs department will release March trade data on 13 April.
According to Standard Chartered, the export growth is expected to have slowed to 8.8% y/y in March from 48.3% in February, when last year's low base provided a boost. External demand likely remained lacklustre, as reflected in the weak reading for the export orders sub-index of the manufacturing PMI.
The strength of the Chinese yuan's (CNY's) trade-weighted index probably also weighed on export growth. Imports likely to have contracted by 10.7% y/y in March, less than February's 20.5% decline but still weak due to sluggish domestic demand, a decline in commodity financing, and low global commodity prices.
"We estimate that the trade surplus narrowed to USD 40bn in March from USD 60.6bn in February", says Standard Chartered.
