NZD/USD:The recent multi-week rally came to an abrupt end on Thursday last week, the near term outlook now negative. While NZ economic data remains strong, the US dollar has woken from its month-old slumber and resumed i…
NZD/USD: The recent multi-week rally came to an abrupt end on Thursday last week, the near term outlook now negative.
While NZ economic data remains strong, the US dollar has woken from its month-old slumber and resumed its uptrend. When the US dollar is trending, NZD/USD usually follows suit.
The key NZ event this week will be the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. Westpac notes the following views on Monday:
We expect 0.7315 to give way this week and pave the way towards 0.7200.
We expect to see downgraded inflation and interest rate forecasts, a 40bp reduction in the latter already priced in and therefore probably market neutral.
NZD/AUD: The cross reversed sharply from 0.97225 last week after the RBA disappointed the bulls by not easing. Westpac notes the following views on Monday:
Near-term momentum is now negative and we target 0.9500 this week.
There's plenty of event risk, with employment on Thursday being the most marketsensitive.
NZD/JPY: Multi-day momentum has flipped to negative, targeting 88.0 . Worth watching this week will be GDP.
NZD/EUR: The cross made a post-float record high at 0.6869 last week and retains upward momentum so a fresh high is possible this week. The ECB starts its QE program this week, which should continue to encourage EUR-sellers in the absence of major economic data
NZD/GBP: Having almost reached 0.5000 last week (0.4985), a short-term pause is due.
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