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Euro zone and Greece face biggest challenge over the next two months as existence of the Euro zone in its original form is in doubt.
Over the weekend, possibility of Greece exiting the Euro zone has increased substantially.
What might trigger Grexit?
Two biggest challenges faced by Greece immediately are IMF payment of € 1.5 billion due on Tuesday and referendum on lenders' proposal on next Sunday, July 5th.
- Missing the payments to IMF, though may prove critical, it has not much of significance when considering Grexit. Missing IMF payment won't be considered as default, which if not paid goes as arrears. Greece can even repay back if a deal gets done within a month.
- Second one has larger significance. If Greeks vote yes to lenders' proposals, then everything is likely to fall in place. But if the people rejects the bailout then Pandora's Box would open up with various scenario, one of which is Grexit.
If Greek government misses the payments to European Central bank (ECB), which has net due of €6.7 billion over the next two months, likely to push Greece towards an exit from Euro zone.
