Worrisome Signs Series: Total business sales in the U.S. remain in recession

U.S. economy may be continuing its growth and remains still a bit far away from recession, but sections of the economy remain well into contraction. Many of the indicators like real gross domestic Private investments are pointing towards looming recessionary possibilities. Another such is Total Business Sales, released from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Since January 2015, the year on year growth rate in Total Business Sales has remained in the negative, which means it is in the negative for 18 months, which would be six quarters. Last time the business sales growth was negative dates back to the great recession of 2008/09 when the contraction lasted for 13 months but the contraction was much steeper than the current. Before that, the growth was negative in 2001, which was followed by recession and the contraction in business sales lasted for 12-13 months.

Some of the Fed officials like Jerome Powell is worried on secular stagnation. Maybe he is right in doing so.