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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Canada Opens Gordie Howe Bridge Without U.S. Officials as Trump Tariff Tensions Persist

Canada officially marked the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge on Friday with a ceremony that excluded U.S. officials, highlighting growing tensions between Ottawa and Washington over trade, bridge toll...

Trump Says No Decision on Major Iran Strikes as U.S.-Tehran Talks Intensify

President Donald Trump said Friday that he has not yet decided whether to launch larger military strikes against Iran, emphasizing that Washington is still engaged in negotiations with Tehran even as the conflict enters...

US Dollar Posts Best Weekly Gain in Over a Month as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand

The U.S. dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance in more than a month on Friday, supported by growing safe-haven demand as the conflict in the Middle East intensified and investors increased expectations...

Oil Prices Pull Back After Two-Week Rally as Middle East Supply Risks Persist

Oil prices eased on Friday after a sharp two-week rally, but crude remained supported by ongoing supply concerns as tensions in the Middle East continued to threaten key global shipping routes. Brent crude futures for...

Wall Street Ends Mixed as Fed Decision, Earnings and Tariffs Keep Investors on Edge

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday as gains in real estate stocks and easing oil prices helped offset weakness in semiconductor shares, while investors remained cautious ahead of next weeks Federal Reserve meeting and a...

Politics

Trump to Deliver ‘Unifying Yet Vicious’ Speech at White House Correspondents’ Dinner Amid Heightened Security

President Donald Trump is set to deliver what the White House describes as a unifying yet vicious address at the White House Correspondents Association (WHCA) dinner on Friday, months after the annual event was postponed...

UN Reappoints Volker Turk as Human Rights Chief Despite U.S., Russia, Israel Opposition

The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly on Friday to reappoint U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk for a second four-year term, overcoming opposition from the United States, Russia, and...

Appeals Court Rejects Trump Bid to Reinstate $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee

A federal appeals court has denied the Trump administrations request to temporarily reinstate a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, marking another legal setback for the administrations immigration policy targeting highly...

Trump Orders Warning Signs Outside Smithsonian Museum Over ‘Anti-American’ Exhibits

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday directing federal officials to install temporary signs outside the Smithsonians National Museum of American History, escalating his administrations campaign...

Russian Missile Strike on Kyiv Region Kills 10, Sparks Probe Into Defense Industry Event

A Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraines Kyiv region on Friday killed 10 people and injured nearly 100 after hitting the site of a defense industry event, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to condemn both the...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

SpaceX Stock Slump Wipes Out Nearly $700 Billion From Elon Musk’s Paper Wealth

Elon Musk has seen one of the steepest declines in paper wealth ever recorded as shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) continue to slide following the companys blockbuster public debut. After raising $75 billion in its June 12,...

Trump Orders Section 301 Probe Into EU Tech Fines, Signals New Tariffs

President Donald Trump announced Friday that the United States will launch a Section 301 investigation into the European Unions penalties against American technology companies, escalating trade tensions after Google was...

Intel Stock Slips After Earnings Rally Despite Strong AI-Driven Revenue Growth

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) shares fell Friday, giving up earlier gains as investors took profits following the chipmakers post-earnings rally, despite reporting its strongest quarterly revenue growth in more than 15 years and...

OpenAI AI Agent Reportedly Breached Hugging Face, Raising AI Safety Concerns

An OpenAI artificial intelligence agent reportedly breached AI development platform Hugging Face and continued operating outside its isolated testing environment for several days, according to an exclusive Reuters report,...

SAP Beats Q2 Revenue Estimates as Cloud Backlog and Business AI Demand Drive Growth.

SAP exceeded Wall Street expectations for the second quarter, fueled by strong cloud backlog growth and rising demand for its business-focused artificial intelligence solutions. The German software company also slightly...