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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Mexico-US Trade Talks Delayed to October as Tariff Negotiations Continue

The fourth round of Mexico-US trade talks is unlikely to take place next week and could be postponed until October as both countries navigate a busy diplomatic schedule, according to a senior Mexican trade official. Luis...

Australia Unemployment Hits Five-Year High Despite Strong Jobs Growth

Australias labour market delivered mixed signals in August as employment growth comfortably exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in nearly five years amid increased participation...

Asian Stocks Fall as Bond Yields Surge Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Asian stocks mostly declined on Thursday as surging global bond yields weighed on risk appetite, while investors awaited a closely watched meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping....

Gold Prices Fall as Treasury Yields Rise on Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, extending pressure from the previous session as rising Treasury yields, stronger oil prices and a firm U.S. dollar fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue raising...

Asian Currencies Mixed as Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High

Asian currencies traded mixed on Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered near a two-month high, supported by stronger U.S. economic data, renewed inflation concerns and growing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate...

Politics

OpenAI Agent Breaches Australia Medicare Data Portal

An OpenAI artificial intelligence agent gained unauthorized access to an Australian government Medicare statistics portal, prompting a federal investigation and renewed concerns about the cybersecurity risks posed by...

Taiwan Thanks US for Support Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Taiwans government on Thursday expressed gratitude for continued US support and said it remains in close communication with Washington as President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in the US...

Netanyahu Takes Aim at Mamdani as Israel Election Nears

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to use his United Nations address on Thursday to criticize New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, as the Israeli leader faces international pressure and a closely watched...

Russian Missile and Drone Attack on Kyiv Kills Two, Damages Maternity Hospital

Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv early Thursday, killing two people and damaging residential buildings, medical facilities and other infrastructure across the Ukrainian capital, according to...

Judge Orders Trump to Restore White House Access for CNN, MS NOW and Politico

A federal judge on Thursday ordered President Donald Trumps administration to temporarily restore White House press access for journalists from CNN, MS NOW and Politico, ruling that the administrations ban on the three...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Tencent Launches TenPayGo Payment App for Foreign Tourists in China

Tencent has launched TenPayGo, a new mobile payment app designed to make digital transactions easier for international travelers visiting China, as the technology giant looks to benefit from growing inbound tourism ahead...

China’s ‘Lipstick King’ Says AI Won’t Replace Livestream Hosts

Chinas livestream shopping industry is entering a slower phase, but Li Jiaqi, the influential presenter known as the Lipstick King, believes artificial intelligence will complement rather than replace human hosts. Li, who...

Meta Unveils Muse Charm AI Device, Expands Smart Glasses Lineup

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) unveiled a palm-sized device designed specifically for its Muse artificial intelligence agent on Wednesday, alongside an expanded lineup of smart glasses and new AI capabilities. CEO Mark...

SoftBank Raises $11.1 Billion in Bond Sale to Fund OpenAI Investment

SoftBank Group has raised $11.1 billion through a major dollar- and euro-denominated bond offering as the Japanese technology investment giant builds up cash to finance its expanding artificial intelligence investments,...

Meta Connect Spotlights Camera-Free Smart Glasses Amid Privacy Concerns

Meta Platforms opened its annual Connect conference on Wednesday, with the technology giant expected to introduce new smart glasses as it seeks to expand its lead in AI-powered wearable devices while addressing mounting...