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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

PBOC Scraps Forex Risk Reserve as Yuan Rally Pressures Chinese Exporters

Chinas central bank has stepped in to curb the rapid rise of the yuan, signaling growing concern over the currencys sharp appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) announced it will remove the...

ASX CEO Exit Signals Turbulent Transition Amid Lawsuit and Regulatory Scrutiny

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is preparing for a leadership transition at a critical time, as outgoing CEO Helen Lofthouse announces her departure in May after 11 years with the company, including four as chief...

Argentina Tax Reform 2026: President Javier Milei Pushes Lower Taxes and Structural Changes

Argentine President Javier Milei has called for a sweeping overhaul of Argentinas tax system, emphasizing the need for lower taxes to stimulate economic growth. Speaking during the opening of the new congressional session...

Asian Stocks Tumble as US-Iran Conflict Escalates and Oil Prices Surge

Asian stock markets plunged on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and fueled global risk aversion. Investor sentiment weakened after the United States and Israel launched...

Wall Street Futures Tumble as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates and Oil Prices Surge

Wall Street futures dropped sharply Sunday night after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, intensifying geopolitical tensions and triggering a surge in oil prices. The sudden escalation...

Politics

Suspected Drone Strike Hits RAF Akrotiri Base in Cyprus, Causing Limited Damage

Britains Royal Air Force (RAF) base at Akrotiri in Cyprus was struck overnight in what authorities believe was a suspected drone attack, prompting heightened security measures but resulting in no reported casualties....

Marco Rubio to Brief Congress After U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief leaders of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives at 4:00 p.m. ET on Monday, according to his public schedule. The congressional briefing comes after joint...

Israel Strikes Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon After Missile and Drone Attacks

Israel launched airstrikes across Lebanon on Monday, targeting positions linked to the Iran-backed Hezbollah group after the militant organization fired missiles and drones toward Israeli territory. The escalation marks...

U.S. Deploys Tomahawks, B-2 Bombers, F-35 Jets and AI Tools in Operation Epic Fury Against Iran

The United States launched a sweeping military operation against Iranian targets under Operation Epic Fury, deploying advanced weaponry that included Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, F-35 and F/A-18 fighter...

Australia Rules Out Military Involvement in Iran Conflict as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Australia has confirmed it will not participate in any military operations in Iran, even if the escalating Middle East conflict intensifies. The announcement came after Israel launched new airstrikes on Tehran and Iran...

Science

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Technology

OpenAI Secures $110 Billion Funding Round at $840 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO

OpenAI has raised a record-breaking $110 billion in fresh funding, pushing the ChatGPT makers valuation to an impressive $840 billion. The massive investment round, backed by SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon, highlights the...

Australia Targets AI Platforms With Strict Age Verification Rules

Australias internet regulator has warned that search engines and app stores could be required to block artificial intelligence services that fail to implement age verification systems by an upcoming compliance deadline....

AWS Data Center in UAE Hit by Fire After Objects Strike Facility Amid Regional Tensions

Amazon Web Services (AWS) confirmed that one of its data centers in the United Arab Emirates experienced a temporary power shutdown after objects struck the facility, causing sparks and a fire. The incident occurred at...

Samsung Electronics Stock Poised for $1 Trillion Valuation Amid AI and Memory Boom

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd DRC (LON:0593xq) is rapidly regaining momentum as global demand for AI infrastructure and memory chips accelerates. According to recent analyst reports from Citi, Macquarie, and Morgan Stanley,...

OpenAI Pentagon AI Contract Adds Safeguards Amid Anthropic Dispute

OpenAI has confirmed that its newly signed contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) includes expanded safeguards designed to tightly regulate how artificial intelligence is deployed on classified government...