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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Gold Prices Slip as Dollar Strengthens Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions and Rising Inflation

Gold prices declined on Monday as a strengthening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation concerns weighed heavily on the precious metal. Spot gold dropped 0.6% to $4,720.67 per ounce, while gold futures slid 0.9% to...

Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Imposes Blockade on Iranian Shipping Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions

Global financial markets were rattled Monday after the United States announced a blockade on Iranian shipping following the breakdown of weekend peace negotiations. The decision has renewed fears over Middle East energy...

Bank of Korea Governor Nominee Warns of Action if Korean Won Weakens Further

South Koreas Bank of Korea governor nominee, Shin Hyun-song, signaled on Monday that policymakers stand ready to intervene should the Korean won experience excessive depreciation. In written statements submitted to...

U.S. Blockades Strait of Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge Past $100

Oil prices climbed sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 8% to $102.93 per barrel after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The move...

U.S. Futures Plunge as Iran Ceasefire Talks Collapse and Hormuz Blockade Looms

U.S. stock index futures dropped sharply Sunday evening after ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran broke down, raising fears of prolonged conflict and further disruptions to global energy markets. The...

Politics

U.S. Blockades Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Tensions

The U.S. military has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern, targeting vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. Ships not bound for Iran will be permitted to...

U.S., Australia, and Philippines Conduct Joint South China Sea Military Drills Amid Rising Tensions With China

The United States, Australia, and the Philippines wrapped up their second trilateral maritime exercises of 2025 in the South China Sea, reinforcing their collective commitment to freedom of navigation and regional security...

Taiwan Insists Government Must Lead Cross-Strait Engagement Amid China's New Incentives

Taiwans top security official has made clear that any response to Chinas latest proposed trade and tourism measures must be government-led, not driven by opposition party diplomacy. National Security Bureau chief Tsai...

Spain's Sanchez Urges China to Take Greater Global Leadership Role During Beijing Visit

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called on China to assume a more meaningful role in addressing pressing global challenges, including climate change, international security, defense, and the fight against inequality....

Hungary's Orban Loses Power as Magyar Wins in Landslide; U.S. Reactions Divided

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, was voted out of power after 16 years in office as Hungarians turned out in record numbers to elect center-right challenger Peter Magyar....

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

AI Deradicalization Tools: How Chatbots Could Help Combat Violent Extremism Online

As artificial intelligence platforms become more deeply embedded in daily life, concerns about their role in enabling dangerous behavior continue to grow. A New Zealand startup is now developing a groundbreaking tool that...

TSMC Posts Record Q1 2026 Profits Driven by Surging AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is on track to deliver its fourth straight quarter of record-breaking earnings, with analysts forecasting a 50% jump in net profit for the first quarter of 2026. The surge is...

OpenAI Addresses Security Vulnerability in macOS App Certification Process

OpenAI disclosed a security concern on Friday involving a third-party developer tool known as Axios, which is connected to the process used to verify the authenticity of its macOS applications. The company confirmed it has...

San Francisco Suspect Arrested After Molotov Cocktail Attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's Home

San Francisco police arrested a 20-year-old suspect Friday following a pre-dawn attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altmans residence in the citys North Beach neighborhood. According to the San Francisco Police Department, an...

SanDisk Joins Nasdaq-100, Replacing Atlassian on April 20

Nasdaq Inc. confirmed late Friday that SanDisk Corporation will enter the Nasdaq-100 Index, taking the spot previously held by Atlassian Corp Plc when markets open on Monday, April 20, 2026. The change signals a broader...