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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Iran-Israel War Escalates: Long-Range Missiles, Nuclear Site Strikes, and Global Energy Crisis

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has reached a dangerous new threshold as Iranian forces deployed long-range ballistic missiles for the first time, signaling a potential threat well beyond the Middle East...

US-Iran War: Trump Eyes Military Exit as Markets React to Potential De-escalation

President Donald Trump signaled that the United States is nearing the end of its military campaign against Iran, stating the offensive has largely achieved its core objectives degrading Tehrans missile capabilities and...

Trump Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz, Threatens Power Grid Strikes

President Donald Trump escalated U.S. military pressure on Iran Saturday, delivering a stark 48-hour ultimatum demanding Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating strikes on the countrys largest power...

Qatar's Economy Under Pressure: How Regional Conflict Could Reshape Global Investment in 2026

Qatars economic outlook for 2026 has taken a concerning turn as escalating geopolitical tensions threaten to destabilize the Gulf nations core revenue streams. According to Dr. Andreas Krieg, a leading regional analyst,...

EA's $15B Debt Offering Draws $25B in Investor Demand Amid Credit Market Turmoil

Investor appetite for large-scale leveraged buyouts remains surprisingly robust, as demand for Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA) nearly $15 billion debt package has surged to approximately $25 billion. The offering, led by...

Politics

Trump Threatens ICE Airport Deployment Amid TSA Shutdown Crisis

President Donald Trump escalated tensions with congressional Democrats on Saturday, threatening to station Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at U.S. airports unless lawmakers immediately approve funding for...

Ukraine-U.S. Peace Talks Resume in Florida Amid Ongoing Russia-Ukraine War

Ukrainian and American negotiators resumed high-stakes peace discussions in Florida on Saturday, marking the latest diplomatic effort to bring an end to the devastating four-year conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The...

Ukraine-U.S. Peace Talks in Florida Target Ceasefire Framework and Defense Cooperation

High-stakes diplomatic negotiations between Ukraine and the United States are underway in Florida this weekend, as both nations work toward a structured peace agreement to end the ongoing conflict now entering its fourth...

Robert Mueller, Former FBI Director and Special Counsel, Dies at 81

Robert Mueller, the respected former FBI director who led a landmark investigation into Russian interference during the 2016 U.S. presidential election, has passed away at the age of 81. His former law firm, WilmerHale,...

Trump's Shifting War Goals Against Iran: A Timeline of Contradictions

Since launching joint military operations with Israel against Iran on February 28, President Donald Trump and his administration have struggled to maintain a consistent narrative around the conflicts objectives, duration,...

Science

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Technology

Palantir's Maven AI Earns Pentagon "Program of Record" Status, Reshaping Military AI Strategy

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) is drawing renewed investor and industry attention after the U.S. Department of Defense officially designated its Maven Smart System as a program of record, a classification that...

Amazon's "Transformer" Phone: Can It Succeed Where Fire Phone Failed?

Amazon is quietly developing a new smartphone, codenamed Transformer, marking the companys return to mobile hardware more than a decade after its Fire Phone disaster. According to sources familiar with the initiative, the...

Judge Dismisses Sam Altman Sexual Abuse Lawsuit, But Sister Can Refile

A federal judge has dismissed a sexual abuse lawsuit filed against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman by his sister Annie Altman, ruling that the claims were too old to pursue under current law. However, U.S. District Judge Zachary...

Trump White House Unveils National AI Policy Framework for Congress

The Trump administration released a sweeping artificial intelligence policy framework on Friday, urging Congress to establish unified federal legislation that would override fragmented state-level AI regulations across the...

Jeff Bezos Eyes $100 Billion Fund to Transform Manufacturing With AI

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is in early-stage discussions to raise a massive $100 billion investment fund focused on acquiring manufacturing companies and accelerating their automation through artificial intelligence. The...