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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

India–EU FTA Nears Finish Line Ahead of New Delhi Summit

With most discussions over before the January 27 New Delhi summit of the leaders, India and the European Union are nearing finalization of their much anticipated Free Trade Agreement. Although the official signing will...

Gold Price Hits Record High as Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices surged to a fresh record high during Asian trading on Tuesday, extending a powerful rally as investors sought safety amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar. Bullion remained firmly...

Japanese Government Bond Yields Surge to Record Highs Amid Election and Fiscal Fears

Long-dated Japanese government bond (JGB) yields surged to record highs on Tuesday, rattling global fixed-income markets as investors reacted to mounting political and fiscal uncertainty ahead of a potential February...

Asian Currencies Trade Narrowly as Dollar Slips on Trump-Greenland Tensions

Most Asian currencies traded within a tight range on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar edged lower as renewed geopolitical concerns dampened investor appetite for American assets. Market sentiment turned cautious after U.S....

Australia’s Second-Largest Pension Fund Boosts Currency Hedging Amid Weaker U.S. Dollar Outlook

Australias second-largest pension fund, Australian Retirement Trust (ART), has announced it is reducing its exposure to the U.S. dollar by increasing currency hedging, as global investors reassess their U.S. allocations...

Politics

Supreme Court Tests Federal Reserve Independence Amid Trump’s Bid to Fire Lisa Cook

The U.S. Supreme Court is once again at the center of a high-stakes legal battle with major economic implications, as it considers the legality of President Donald Trumps attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook....

Trump Revives Greenland Ownership Push Ahead of World Economic Forum in Davos

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again reignited debate over Greenland, reiterating his long-standing call for American ownership of the Arctic territory just days before attending the World Economic Forum (WEF) in...

Trump Says Greenland Is Key to Global Security After Call With NATO Chief

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he held a very good telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during which they discussed issues of global security, including the strategic importance...

Trump Threatens 200% Tariff on French Wine Over Macron’s Refusal to Join Peace Board

U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked fresh controversy after saying he would impose a 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes, linking the move to French President Emmanuel Macrons refusal to join his proposed Board...

Minnesota U.S. Citizen Detained by ICE in Armed Raid Sparks Outrage and Civil Rights Concerns

A Minnesota mans traumatic encounter with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has ignited renewed debate over immigration enforcement practices and civil rights under the Trump administration. ChongLy Thao, 56, a...

Science

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Technology

Micron to Buy Powerchip Fab for $1.8 Billion, Shares Surge Nearly 10%

Shares of Taiwans Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp jumped nearly 10% on Monday following news that U.S. memory chip giant Micron Technology plans to acquire one of Powerchips fabrication facilities in Taiwan,...

Tesla Revives Dojo Supercomputer Project With AI5 Chip at the Core

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to restart development of its next-generation supercomputer, Dojo3, marking a renewed push into artificial intelligence infrastructure. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Sunday that work on...

South Korea Seeks Favorable U.S. Tariff Terms on Memory Chip Imports

South Korea is moving to secure favorable treatment from the United States on tariffs affecting memory chip imports, following recent trade actions announced by the U.S. government. A spokesperson from South Koreas...

South Korea Sees Limited Impact From New U.S. Tariffs on Advanced AI Chips

South Koreas trade minister said a newly announced U.S. tariff on certain advanced computing chips is expected to have only a limited short-term impact on South Korean companies, while cautioning that future measures could...

Elon Musk Seeks $134 Billion in Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Microsoft Over Alleged Wrongful Gains

Elon Musk has escalated his legal battle against OpenAI and Microsoft, seeking up to $134 billion in damages over what he claims are wrongful gains stemming from his early involvement in the artificial intelligence...
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