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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

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Economy

U.S. Economy Grows Faster Than Expected in Q2, Inflation Pressures Easing

The U.S. economy expanded faster than anticipated in the second quarter, with a 2.8% annualized growth rate driven by robust consumer spending and business investment. Inflation pressures eased, supporting expectations for...

China Central Bank Surprises Markets with Second Unscheduled Rate Cut This Week

Chinas central bank surprised markets again this week with an unscheduled rate cut, issuing 200 billion yuan in one-year loans at significantly lower rates to stimulate the economy and address sharp stock market...

Turkey Terminates Saudi Deposit, Reflects Growing Economic Confidence

On July 24, Turkeys central bank announced it terminated a $5 billion deposit transaction with Saudi Arabia, signaling increased confidence in rebuilding foreign exchange reserves independently. The move reflects Turkeys...

Japan's Factory Activity Declines in July, but Service Sector Sees Significant Growth

Japans factory activity contracted slightly in July as output and new orders fell, according to a business survey. However, the service sectors expansion led to overall growth in the private sector, with the au Jibun Bank...

China Cuts Interest Rates to Boost Economy Amid Growth Concerns

On July 22, China, the worlds second-largest economy, enacted unexpected interest rate cuts to stimulate its sluggish, debt-laden economy. The Peoples Bank of China lowered key rates by 10 basis points following...

Politics

Key MAGA Ally Warns Donald Trump Fans to Stop Contradicting Themselves

As the political landscape shifts with President Joe Bidens decision to exit the 2024 presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump and his supporters find themselves in a...

Donald Trump's Big Regret? Ex-POTUS Eyes Nikki Haley to Replace 'Dud' VP J.D. Vance Amid Campaign Turmoil

As Joe Biden steps down from the 2024 presidential race, making Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee, Donald Trump faces speculation about a significant shake-up within his own campaign. Reports suggest Trump...

Donald Trump Mocks Kamala Harris with Shocking Nickname: 'I Couldn't Care Less If I Mispronounce It'

Donald Trump intensified his attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris, labeling her a bum and ridiculing the significance of pronouncing her name correctly during a speech in Florida. Speaking at a Turning Point event in...

Kamala Harris Surges as Working Families Party Nominee, Boosting 2024 Campaign Against Donald Trump

Vice President Kamala Harriss 2024 presidential campaign received a significant boost as the Working Families Party (WFP) officially nominated her, ensuring a strategic ballot line in New York and broad organizational...

FBI Confirms Bullet Struck Donald Trump During Assassination Attempt, Ending Speculation

The FBI confirmed late Friday that former President Donald Trump was indeed struck by a bullet during the assassination attempt on July 13, resolving earlier uncertainties about the incident. This update followed Trumps...

Science

SpaceX Falcon 9 Ready to Fly Again Saturday After Resolving Engine Anomaly

SpaceX is set to relaunch its Falcon 9 rocket on Saturday (July 26) after a rare flight anomaly earlier this month. The company identified and fixed an engine issue, ensuring the rockets safety and readiness for its next...

SpaceX Reports 50,000 Collision-Avoidance Maneuvers by Starlink Satellites in Six Months

SpaceXs recent report indicates Starlink satellites executed 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers from December 2023 to May 2024, reflecting increasing traffic in orbit and raising concerns about potential...

SpaceX Unveils Design for ISS Deorbit Vehicle Using Dragon Heritage Hardware

NASAs decision to entrust SpaceX with constructing the ISS deorbit vehicle marks a significant milestone in space technology. SpaceX recently revealed a rendering of the car based on its Dragon spacecraft, which features...

SpaceX Completes Heat Shield Upgrade for Starship Ahead of Critical Flight 5 Test

SpaceX has completed a significant heat shield upgrade for Starship ahead of its fifth test flight. The upgrade aims to improve reentry safety following the issues from the fourth flight. A critical static fire test is...

SpaceX's New EVA Spacesuits Pass Testing for Historic Commercial Spacewalk

SpaceX has finalized acceptance testing of its new EVA spacesuits, marking a significant milestone for the Polaris Program. The suits will facilitate the first commercial spacewalk, led by entrepreneur Jared Isaacman,...

Technology

Bitcoin to Hit $13M! Michael Saylor's Bold Forecast at Bitcoin 2024 Stuns Audience

MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor stunned the Bitcoin 2024 audience with a prediction that Bitcoins price will hit $13 million per coin by 2045. Bold BTC Predictions for 2045 Michael Saylor, a vocal co-founder...

Bitcoin Climbs to $67K: 75% of Short-Term Holders in Profit

Bitcoin has surged to $67,000, placing over 75% of short-term holders in profit and suggesting further bullish momentum. With three-quarters of short-term Bitcoin holders now turning a profit, the cryptocurrency could...

WhatsApp Hits 100 Million Monthly Users in the US, Bridging iPhone and Android Gap

WhatsApp has reached 100 million monthly active users in the United States, marking significant growth in a market dominated by Apples iMessage and traditional texting. This milestone highlights WhatsApps role in bridging...

Sam Altman's Worldcoin (WLD) Soars 10% Amid Latest Strategic Update

Worldcoin (WLD) surged 10% in value, hitting $2.31, following a crucial update from its developers. Major Price Surge Details A tremendous increase in the value of Worldcoin (WLD) has recently occurred. In the past...

$3.9B Bitcoin Futures Expiry Could Trigger Price Drop Below $63K

On July 26, Bitcoin might experience price drops below $63,000 as $3.9 billion in futures contracts expire, raising market concerns. Deribits Significant Bitcoin Futures Expiry On July 26, more than $3.9 billion...