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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

ECB Signals Possible Rate Hike as Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns

The European Central Bank is increasingly considering an interest rate hike at its upcoming June meeting as rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict continue to intensify inflation pressures across the eurozone,...

Rubio, Jaishankar Discuss Iran Crisis, Trade, and Energy Security During Key U.S.-India Talks

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held high-level talks on Saturday, focusing on the Iran conflict, maritime security, trade relations, visa issues, and energy...

Mexico-EU Free Trade Deal Signals Strategic Shift Away From U.S. Dependence

Mexico and the European Union officially signed a long-delayed free trade agreement aimed at strengthening economic ties and reducing reliance on the United States amid ongoing tariff tensions linked to U.S. President...

World Bank Emergency Funding Demand Surges as 27 Countries Seek Crisis Support Amid Iran Conflict

Twenty-seven countries have moved to unlock emergency financing from existing World Bank programs following the economic shock caused by the ongoing Iran conflict, according to an internal document reviewed by Reuters. The...

Trump-China Summit Yields Limited Progress on Trade and Tech Cooperation

US President Donald Trumps May 1315 visit to China ended with both nations agreeing to strengthen communication and pursue a constructive strategic stability framework, signaling cautious progress in US-China relations....

Politics

Israeli Airstrike in Gaza Refugee Camp Kills Infant and Parents Amid Fragile Ceasefire

An Israeli airstrike on a residential apartment in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza killed three Palestinians on Sunday, including a six-month-old baby, according to local health officials. The victims were...

Trump’s White House Ballroom Project Draws Criticism Amid Rising Gas Prices

U.S. President Donald Trump is facing growing criticism after repeatedly promoting his White House ballroom construction project while Americans struggle with high gas prices and economic uncertainty. Speaking at the...

China Coal Mine Explosion Death Toll Revised to 82 in Shanxi

Chinese authorities have revised the death toll from the deadly coal mine gas explosion in northern Shanxi province to 82, down from the initially reported figure of more than 90. Despite the correction, the disaster...

Trump Says Iran Peace Deal Could Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Nuclear Talks Advance

U.S. President Donald Trump said a largely negotiated memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran could soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route disrupted since the outbreak of...

Russia Launches Massive Missile and Drone Strike on Kyiv Amid Oreshnik Threat

Kyiv came under a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack early Sunday after Ukraines air force warned that Russia could launch a hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile. Powerful explosions shook Ukraines capital...

Science

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

Technology

Meta AI Push Could Add $26 Billion in Revenue by 2027, Wolfe Research Says

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is projected to generate more than $26 billion in additional revenue by 2027 through artificial intelligence products, subscription services, and new advertising tools, according to a recent...

SpaceX Starship V3 Test Flight Boosts IPO Momentum Ahead of Historic Market Debut

SpaceX successfully completed a major test flight of its upgraded Starship V3 rocket, marking a significant achievement for Elon Musks aerospace company as it moves closer to a highly anticipated initial public offering....

PDG Explores $1 Billion Sale of China Data Center Assets

Princeton Digital Group (PDG), a major data center operator backed by private equity firm Warburg Pincus, has reportedly launched a sale process for its China-based assets that could be valued at as much as $1 billion,...

Lam Research Expands AI-Powered Semiconductor Tools and Arizona Operations

Lam Research is accelerating its investment in artificial intelligence and advanced sensing technology to improve semiconductor manufacturing efficiency while expanding its presence in Arizona and California. The...

Texas Sues Meta Over WhatsApp Encryption Claims

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit against Meta Platforms and its messaging service WhatsApp, accusing the companies of misleading consumers about WhatsApps encryption and privacy protections. The...