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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Asian Stocks Mixed as China, Japan Factory Data Disappoint; India, Korea Decline on Geopolitical Risks

Asian stock markets were mostly flat on Wednesday as investors weighed weak factory activity data from China and Japan, alongside Australian inflation figures and heightened regional tensions. Chinas official manufacturing...

Oil Prices Dip Amid Tariff Concerns, Rising Inventories, and OPEC+ Output Worries

Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading Wednesday, pressured by renewed concerns over global economic growth and fuel demand due to U.S. tariff policies and rising crude inventories. Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or...

U.S. Stock Futures Dip as Investors Monitor Trade Developments, Earnings, and Key Data

U.S. stock futures slipped Tuesday evening as investors digested signs of easing trade tensions, soft economic data, and awaited major corporate earnings. SP 500 futures fell 0.2% to 5,571.75, while Nasdaq 100 futures...

India Eyes Swift U.S. Trade Deal with Rare Forward MFN Clause

India is accelerating trade talks with the U.S., offering significant concessions to secure a fast-track deal ahead of President Donald Trumps proposed 26% reciprocal tariff deadline in July. According to Indian government...

Sweden’s Q1 2025 GDP Stalls, Missing Growth Forecasts

Swedens economy stagnated in the first quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) showing no growth compared to the previous three months, according to preliminary data from the Statistics Office released Tuesday....

Politics

Trump Touts Economic Record, Promises Tax Cuts at Michigan Rally Amid Recession Fears

President Donald Trump rallied supporters in Warren, Michigan, marking his first 100 days in office with bold claims about the U.S. economy, promises of sweeping tax cuts, and sharp criticism of Democrats. Speaking near...

Tensions Escalate as China, U.S., and Philippines Conduct Rival Patrols in South China Sea

Chinas navy conducted a patrol in the South China Sea on Tuesday, accusing the Philippines of provocations as Filipino and U.S. forces carried out joint aerial patrols over the disputed waters. The move comes amid rising...

U.S. Defense Secretary Scraps Women, Peace and Security Program Citing Military Focus

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Tuesday the cancellation of the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) program, originally enacted by President Donald Trump in 2017 to promote womens participation in global peace...

U.S. Urges India and Pakistan to Avoid Escalation After Kashmir Attack

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to hold talks with his Indian and Pakistani counterparts in an effort to prevent further escalation following a deadly militant attack in India-administered Kashmir. The State...

Trump Jokes About Becoming Pope After Death of Francis

U.S. President Donald Trump joked on Tuesday that hed like to succeed Pope Francis, who passed away last week at the age of 88. When asked who he would prefer as the next leader of the Catholic Church, Trump quipped, Id...

Science

Kennedy Sets September Deadline to Uncover Autism Causes Amid Controversy

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a bold plan to identify the cause of autism by September 2025. Speaking at a cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump, Kennedy declared a global...

AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi Gets US Approval for Bladder Cancer Treatment

AstraZenecas drug Imfinzi (NASDAQ: AZN) has received U.S. approval to treat adult patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer, a significant advancement in cancer therapy. The approval allows Imfinzi to be used in...

Sanofi’s New Hemophilia Drug Qfitlia Gains FDA Approval with Breakthrough Bimonthly Dosing

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Qfitlia, a groundbreaking hemophilia treatment by French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY). Designed for patients aged 12 and older with hemophilia A or B,...

FDA Vaccine Chief Peter Marks Resigns Amid Controversy Over Transparency

Peter Marks, the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) top vaccine official, has resigned after reportedly being forced out by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), according to The Wall Street Journal....

Museums have tons of data, and AI could make it more accessible − but standardizing and organizing it across fields won’t be easy

Ice cores in freezers, dinosaurs on display, fish in jars, birds in boxes, human remains and ancient artifacts from long gone civilizations that few people ever see museum collections are filled with all this and more....

Technology

Xiaomi Unveils MiMo AI Model, Shares Surge 5% on Breakthrough Launch

Xiaomi Corp (HK:1810) launched its first open-source large language model, MiMo, on Wednesday, marking its official entry into the competitive artificial intelligence space. The debut sent Xiaomis Hong Kong-listed shares...

Alibaba Launches Qwen 3 AI Model Amid Intensifying China Tech Competition

Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) unveiled Qwen 3 on Tuesday, a next-generation AI model featuring hybrid reasoning capabilities aimed at boosting performance and adaptability. The move underscores Alibabas...

Amazon Enters Satellite Internet Race with First Kuiper Deployment

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has officially entered the satellite broadband market with the successful launch of 27 operational satellites for Project Kuiper, its high-speed internet initiative aimed at rivaling SpaceXs Starlink....

Chinese AI App DeepSeek Resumes Downloads in South Korea After Privacy Update

Chinese artificial intelligence app DeepSeek has resumed availability in South Koreas app stores after a two-month suspension due to data protection concerns. Downloads were halted in February when South Koreas Personal...

Nvidia Shares Dip as Huawei Tests Rival AI Chip

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) slipped in after-hours trading on Sunday, following reports that Chinas Huawei is testing a powerful artificial intelligence chip aimed at challenging Nvidias dominance. NVDA shares fell...