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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

UK Inflation Stabilizes: November CPI at 2.6%, Signaling Economic Recovery

In November 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the UK was reported at 2.6% compared to the same month last year, which matched what experts had predicted. This is an increase from October 2024, when the CPI was at...

China's Tightened Export Controls Disrupt U.S. Tech Firms' Production Plans

China is intensifying scrutiny of exports by U.S. tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Dell, delaying their production shifts to Southeast Asia and India, according to Nikkei Asia. Since December, dual-use technology...

Trump's Economic Policies to Face New Challenges in 2025

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to inherit a strong economy, but his aggressive policiestariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax cutsmight disrupt growth. With output above trend, near full employment, and...

U.S. Stock Futures Rise Amid Tariff Speculation and Key Data Focus

U.S. stock index futures gained on Monday evening as reports eased fears of disruptive trade tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. Bloomberg reported that his team may propose a gradual tariff increase of 2%-5%...

UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data

UBS strategists foresee the Federal Reserve implementing an additional 50 basis points (bps) rate cut later this year, despite persistent inflationary pressures. Last week, US stocks dipped as a robust December jobs report...

Politics

South Korean Ex-President Yoon Arrested After Martial Law Attempt

Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on Wednesday following a failed attempt to impose military law in late 2024, according to local media reports. Investigators successfully executed an arrest...

Biden Moves to Normalize U.S.-Cuba Relations Amid Major Policy Shifts

The Biden administration announced plans to remove Cuba from the U.S. terrorism blacklist, signaling a major policy shift that could reshape U.S.-Cuba relations. The move reverses sanctions imposed by former President...

Iranian President Denies Plot to Kill Trump, Refutes U.S. Claims

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed allegations that Iran plotted to assassinate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. In an NBC News interview, Pezeshkian stated, We have never attempted this to begin with and we...

Pete Hegseth Faces Tight Confirmation Battle for Secretary of Defense

President-elect Donald Trumps nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, endured intense scrutiny during his confirmation hearing, highlighting sharp partisan divides. Hegseth, a decorated veteran and former Fox News...

SEC Accuses Elon Musk of Securities Law Violation Over Twitter Stake Delay

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk, accusing him of delaying the disclosure of his substantial stake in Twitter, now known as X, in 2022. The SEC alleges Musk violated...

Science

Bill Gates’ Shocking New Malaria Solution Unveiled as Genetically Modified Mosquitoes Turn Into Flying Vaccinators

In a groundbreaking and controversial move, researchers funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation at Leiden University Medical Center have developed a revolutionary approach to combat malaria. The team has created...

Explosive CIA Whistleblower Claims Havana Syndrome Victims Face Cancer, Dementia, and Government Betrayal

A former CIA operative has come forward with alarming allegations, claiming that victims of the mysterious Havana Syndrome are now battling devastating health issues, including cancer, dementia, and Parkinsons disease. The...

FDA Approval of Opdivo Injection Sparks Hope for Cancer Patients with Revolutionary Treatment Update

In a significant advancement for cancer care, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved an injectable version of Bristol Myers Squibbs blockbuster cancer drug Opdivo. Branded as Opdivo Qvantig, the new...

Public Health Experts Warn of ‘Quad-Demic’ as Flu, COVID, RSV, and Norovirus Threaten Winter Surge

Public health experts are raising alarms over a potential quad-demic this winter, with flu, COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and norovirus all expected to surge simultaneously. This unprecedented convergence of...

Philippines' 'Missile Acquisition' Plan Provokes China's 'Arms Race' Warning

The Philippines has announced plans to acquire the U.S.-developed Typhon missile system to bolster its maritime defense capabilities. This decision has elicited strong reactions from China, which warns that such a move...

Technology

Trade Groups Push Back on Biden's New Chip Export Rules

A coalition of semiconductor and manufacturing trade groups has expressed concerns to U.S. President Joe Biden over recently announced export controls on advanced computing chips. The Semiconductor Industry Association...

Global Smartphone Market Sees Shifts as Chinese Brands Gain Ground

Smartphone shipments for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Samsung (KS:005930) declined in Q4 as competition from Chinese companies like Xiaomi (OTC:XIACF) intensified, according to preliminary data from IDC. Despite a rebound in...

Blue Origin's New Glenn Rocket Launch Delayed to Thursday

Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos rocket company, has rescheduled the inaugural launch of its New Glenn rocket to Thursday, Jan. 16. Originally set for Tuesday, the launch was delayed after a technical issue arose on Monday. The...

NVIDIA to Establish Asian Headquarters in Taiwan

NVIDIA Corporation will set up its Asian headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, according to the Central News Agency (CNA). The tech giant plans to hire over 2,500 employees as part of the expansion, as confirmed by National...

NVIDIA to Establish Asian HQ and R&D Center in Taiwan

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is planning to set up its Asian headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, according to the Central News Agency. The tech giant will reportedly hire over 2,500 staff as part of the move, as stated by...