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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

EU Prepares €21B Tariff Response to Trump’s Trade Threats

The European Union is readying 21 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. goods if trade talks fail, according to Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. This move follows U.S. President Donald Trumps recent threat to impose 30%...

Trump’s Spending Bill Pressures Medicaid Insurers Amid Cost and Coverage Concerns

President Donald Trumps new spending bill, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is expected to significantly raise administrative costs for Medicaid insurers like UnitedHealthcare, CVS Healths Aetna, Centene, and...

Serbia Faces Pressure as U.S. Talks Stall on Sanctions Against Russian-Owned Oil Firm NIS

Serbias negotiations with the United States over delaying sanctions on Russian-owned oil company NIS have hit significant roadblocks, according to Serbian Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic. Speaking...

Sweden’s June Inflation Rises 0.5% Monthly, Hits 2.8% Annually

Swedens consumer prices rose 0.5% in June compared to May, according to final inflation figures released by Statistics Sweden (SCB) on Monday. On a year-over-year basis, the headline inflation rate reached 2.8%, reflecting...

EU, US Close to Trade Deal Amid Trump Tariff Threat

The European Union and the United States are reportedly nearing a major trade agreement, signaling progress in efforts to ease transatlantic tensions. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that negotiations...

Politics

Trump’s Ukraine Envoy Kellogg Visits Kyiv for Security, Sanctions Talks

U.S. President Donald Trumps special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kyiv on Monday to discuss defense cooperation and tougher sanctions against Russia. According to Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian...

Albanese Urges China Collaboration on Global Steel Overcapacity During Shanghai Visit

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized the need for joint action with China to tackle global steel overcapacity during a high-level meeting with business leaders in Shanghai. Speaking on Monday, Albanese...

Trump Addresses Epstein Probe Fallout, Backs FBI Deputy Bongino

President Donald Trump said Sunday he had spoken with FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino to address tensions surrounding the Justice Departments handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. Speaking to reporters, Trump...

Israeli Airstrikes Kill Children in Gaza as Ceasefire Talks Stall

At least eight Palestinians, including six children, were killed Sunday in an Israeli airstrike on a water collection point in Nuseirat refugee camp, central Gaza. According to local officials, the victims were gathering...

Trump to Send Patriot Missiles to Ukraine Amid Ongoing Conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he plans to send Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine, signaling continued support for the war-torn nation amid its conflict with Russia. Speaking to reporters at Joint...

Science

FDA Lifts REMS Requirement for CAR-T Cell Cancer Therapies

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has removed the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) requirement for all currently approved CAR-T cell therapies, a move expected to improve patient access to these...

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Surges on U.S. Patent Win for Rare Disorder Drug

Shares of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:NEU) jumped over 10% on Thursday after the company announced a key development in its rare disease pipeline. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has approved Neurens patent...

CDC Vaccine Review Sparks Controversy Over Thimerosal Study Citation

A presentation on thimerosal, a mercury-based vaccine preservative, set to be delivered to the CDCs advisory committee has come under scrutiny for referencing a non-existent study. The report, Thimerosal as a Vaccine...

SpaceX Starship Explodes in Texas During Test, Citing Nitrogen Tank Failure

SpaceXs Starship spacecraft exploded in a dramatic fireball during a late-night test at the companys Starbase facility in Brownsville, Texas, on June 18, 2025. The 400-foot Mars-bound rocket, a key part of Elon Musks...

NASA Astronauts Wilmore and Williams Recover After Boeing Starliner Delay

NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are steadily recovering after spending nine unexpected months aboard the International Space Station (ISS) due to issues with Boeings Starliner capsule. Initially intended...

Technology

China Approves Synopsys’ $35B Ansys Deal Amid Easing Trade Tensions

Chinas State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has granted conditional approval to Synopsys (NASDAQ: SNPS) $35 billion acquisition of Ansys (NASDAQ: ANSS), removing the final major regulatory barrier for the U.S....

Stifel Lowers HubSpot Price Target to $700, Maintains Buy Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Stifel analysts have revised their price target on HubSpot Inc. (NYSE:HUBS), lowering it from $750 to $700, while reiterating a Buy rating ahead of the companys upcoming Q2 earnings report. Despite the reduced target,...

Elon Musk Proposes Tesla Shareholder Vote on xAI Investment

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will hold a shareholder vote on whether the electric vehicle giant should invest in his artificial intelligence startup, xAI. Responding to a question on social media, Musk...

J.P. Morgan: Generative AI Must Boost IT Workloads by 55% to Offset Cost Deflation

Generative AI is reshaping IT services, but it must drive over 55% more workload to offset significant cost deflation, according to a recent J.P. Morgan report. The brokerage estimates that large language models (LLMs) can...

Google Hires Windsurf AI Talent After OpenAI Acquisition Talks Falter

Google has hired key personnel from AI code-generation startup Windsurf, following failed acquisition talks between Windsurf and rival OpenAI. According to a Google spokesperson, Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan, co-founder...
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