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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

US Oil Blockade Deepens Iran’s Economic Crisis

Iran is facing mounting economic strain as a U.S. campaign targeting its oil exports, financial networks and sanctions-evasion channels increasingly restricts Tehrans access to foreign currency and essential imports,...

U.S. Payrolls Seen Rebounding in August as Labor Market Stays Soft

U.S. payroll growth is expected to have recovered in August as local government education employment rebounded, although job losses linked to changes in immigration protections could limit overall gains. Economists...

Gold Prices Hold Near $4,500 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease

Gold prices hovered near $4,500 an ounce on Thursday, extending a strong rebound as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Wallers comments reduced expectations for a September interest rate hike. A softer U.S. dollar and...

Singapore Straits Times Index Hits Record High as Banks, Property Stocks Rally

Singapores benchmark stock market surged to a fresh record high on Friday, supported by strong gains in major banking and real estate stocks as positive sentiment swept across Asian markets. The Straits Times Index (STI)...

Chinese AI Stocks Rally After OpenAI Launches GPT-6 Astra

Chinese AI stocks rallied on Friday after OpenAI unveiled GPT-6 Astra, its latest artificial intelligence model, fueling investor optimism over accelerating AI development and the commercial potential of advanced AI...

Politics

Lula’s Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro Narrows Ahead of Brazil Election

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvas lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed ahead of the October presidential election, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday, reinforcing a tightening race...

Trump Names Adam Telle Acting U.S. Army Secretary

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he has appointed Adam Telle as acting U.S. Army Secretary, following the resignation of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. Trump announced the appointment in a social media post,...

Zelenskiy Orders Probe Into Kyiv SBU-HUR Shootout

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ordered an investigation into a violent confrontation between two of Ukraines security agencies after a shootout in central Kyiv left three military intelligence officers...

Haiti Urges UN to Extend Gang Suppression Force Ahead of December Election

Haiti has called on the United Nations Security Council to renew the mandate of an international security force supporting local police as the Caribbean nation prepares for its first election in a decade amid persistent...

Lula Runs Cautious Brazil Election Campaign as Bolsonaro Narrows Poll Gap

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is taking an unusually cautious approach to his re-election campaign ahead of Brazils October election, as right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro closes the gap in opinion polls....

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Anthropic Nears $15 Billion Credit Deal Ahead of IPO

Anthropic is reportedly close to finalizing an expansion of its revolving credit facility to $15 billion, strengthening the artificial intelligence companys financial position ahead of its widely anticipated initial public...

Xiaomi Shares Jump on Europe EV Expansion Plan

Xiaomi shares climbed sharply on Friday after the Chinese technology giant confirmed plans to begin selling its electric vehicles in Europe in 2027, marking a major step in its international EV expansion. Xiaomi Corp...

Nvidia Eyes $2.5 Billion Investment in Thinking Machines Lab

Nvidia is reportedly in discussions to invest about $2.5 billion in Thinking Machines Lab, the artificial intelligence startup founded by former OpenAI executive Mira Murati, as the chip giant continues to expand its...

OpenAI Launches GPT-6 Astra With Advanced AI Agent Capabilities

OpenAI unveiled GPT-6 Astra on Thursday, describing it as its most capable artificial intelligence model yet as the company confronts growing concerns over the safety and control of increasingly autonomous AI systems. The...

Adobe Names Anil Chakravarthy CEO as AI Push Accelerates

Adobe has named Anil Chakravarthy as its next president and chief executive officer, marking a major leadership transition as the software giant seeks to accelerate growth across artificial intelligence and agentic...