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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Eurozone Recession Risks Rise as Middle East Conflict Threatens Growth, ECB Official Warns

Concerns that the eurozone could face a recession are increasingly valid as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global markets, according to European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and...

Yen Stabilizes After Suspected Intervention as Global Currency Markets Stay Cautious

The Japanese yen showed signs of stability in early Asian trading, gaining modest ground after several volatile sessions driven by suspected government intervention. The currency strengthened by 0.1% to 156.885 per dollar,...

Asian Stocks Rise as South Korea Hits Record High on AI Chip Rally

Asian stock markets opened the week on a positive note, led by a strong surge in South Korean equities and renewed momentum in Hong Kongs technology sector. Investor sentiment across the region improved as markets reacted...

Bank of Korea Signals Potential Interest Rate Hikes as Inflation Remains Elevated

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is signaling a shift toward a more hawkish monetary policy stance, with senior officials indicating that interest rate hikes may soon be back on the table. Ryoo Sang-dai, senior deputy governor and...

Asian Stocks Rise Slightly as Oil Prices Hold Steady Amid Middle East Uncertainty

Asian markets inched higher on Monday while oil prices remained stable, as investors weighed geopolitical developments in the Middle East alongside a packed week of corporate earnings and economic data. Sentiment improved...

Politics

Ukraine Drone Strikes Hit Russian Oil Port Primorsk and Naval Targets

Ukraine has intensified its long-range drone campaign against Russia, targeting key energy infrastructure and military assets in a large-scale overnight assault. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Baltic Sea port of...

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te Visits Eswatini Amid Rising China Pressure

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has arrived in Eswatini, marking a significant diplomatic move after his earlier trip was delayed due to restricted airspace access reportedly influenced by China. The visit underscores...

Japan Signals Potential Shift on Arms Exports, Opening Door to Ukraine Support

Japans recent decision to relax its long-standing weapons export restrictions has created a potential pathway for future defense cooperation with Ukraine, according to Kyivs ambassador to Tokyo. While no immediate arms...

Poland Sees No Delays in U.S. Patriot Missile Defense Deliveries Despite Stockpile Concerns

Poland has not received any signals suggesting delays in the delivery of U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, according to Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. His statement comes amid growing concerns across...

Trump Announces “Project Freedom” to Aid Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump has unveiled a new humanitarian initiative called Project Freedom, designed to assist neutral commercial vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz due to escalating Middle East tensions. The...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

Anthropic’s $1.5B AI Venture with Wall Street Firms Targets Private Equity Market

Anthropic is reportedly nearing completion of a major $1.5 billion joint venture with leading financial institutions, including Blackstone and Goldman Sachs, aimed at expanding the use of artificial intelligence tools...

Samsung Appoints New TV Business Head Amid Rising Competition from Chinese Rivals

Samsung Electronics, the worlds leading TV manufacturer, has made a significant leadership change in its television division for the first time in over two years. The company announced that Lee Won-jin, formerly head of...

U.S. Cybersecurity Pushes Faster Patch Deadlines Amid Rising AI-Driven Threats

U.S. cybersecurity officials are exploring significantly shorter deadlines for fixing critical vulnerabilities in government IT systems, driven by growing concerns that hackers are leveraging advanced artificial...

Apple Q2 2026 Earnings Surge as iPhone 17 Sales Drive Record Revenue

Apple delivered a strong fiscal Q2 2026 performance, reporting record-breaking revenue and profit growth fueled by robust iPhone sales and expanding services. The tech giant posted earnings of $2.01 per share on $111.18...

FBI Warns of China’s Expanding Hack-for-Hire Network Amid Extradition Case

The Chinese governments alleged hack-for-hire ecosystem is rapidly expanding and becoming increasingly difficult to control, according to a senior FBI official. Speaking on Thursday, FBI Assistant Director Brett Leatherman...