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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Goldman Sachs: US Dollar Likely to Stay Strong Despite Oil Price Retreat

The U.S. dollar is expected to remain well-supported in the near term despite the recent decline in oil prices, according to a new Goldman Sachs analysis. While lower crude prices have eased concerns about a severe global...

Russia Stocks End at Six-Month Low as MOEX Index Stalls, Gold Surges and Oil Retreats

Russian stocks closed mixed on Saturday, with the MOEX Russia Index finishing flat at 0.00% and touching its lowest level in six months. Investor sentiment remained cautious as gains in select stocks were offset by...

Carney and Macron Strengthen Canada-France Defense Ties Amid US Trade Uncertainty

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron have agreed to expand defense and industrial cooperation, reinforcing Canadas growing partnership with Europe as trade tensions with the United...

IMF Advances Ukraine Loan Program, Clears $690M Disbursement

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine following the latest review of the countrys $8.1 billion loan program, paving the way for a new disbursement of approximately $690...

Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Hopes Ease Supply Concerns

Global oil prices dropped sharply on Friday and were set for significant weekly losses as growing optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement raised expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen,...

Politics

Senior Haitian Security Official Kidnapped as Gang Violence Escalates in Port-au-Prince

A senior Haitian government and police official has been kidnapped in Port-au-Prince, marking one of the most significant abductions of a high-ranking figure in Haiti in recent years amid the countrys worsening security...

Taiwan Launches Intelligence Tip Website Targeting Chinese Informants

Taiwan has launched a new website aimed at encouraging Chinese citizens to share intelligence-related information, marking a significant development in cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. The initiative,...

U.S.-Iran Peace Framework Nears as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Takes Center Stage

The United States and Iran appear to be moving closer to a long-awaited framework agreement aimed at ending months of conflict, although uncertainty remains over the timing of a formal signing. U.S. President Donald Trump...

Trump Says U.S.-Iran Deal Could Be Signed Sunday as Tehran Signals More Talks Needed

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran is expected to be signed on Sunday, potentially leading to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping...

Trump Names James McDonald as New SDNY U.S. Attorney

President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he intends to appoint James McDonald as the next U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY), replacing Jay Clayton in one of the nations most influential...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

SpaceX IPO Sparks Market Optimism as Shares Surge 19% on Trading Debut

SpaceX delivered one of the most significant stock market debuts in recent years, boosting investor confidence and signaling strong demand for high-growth companies despite recent market volatility. The aerospace giant,...

AI Memory Boom Sparks Global Chip Supply Crunch

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is creating a structural shortage in the global memory chip market, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report. The investment bank warns that soaring...

Anthropic Restricts Global Access to AI Models After U.S. Security Review

Anthropic has suspended access to its advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for users outside the United States following new U.S. export restrictions, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The decision highlights...

SpaceX IPO Set for Explosive Debut as Valuation Tops $2.2 Trillion

SpaceX is poised for one of the most historic stock market debuts ever, with shares expected to open nearly 30% above their initial public offering (IPO) price. According to preliminary Nasdaq data, SpaceX stock (NASDAQ:...

Meta AI Strategy Faces Challenges as Zuckerberg Admits Mistakes in Internal Memo

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has acknowledged that the company has made mistakes during its ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) transformation, according to an internal memo obtained by Reuters. In the memo, Zuckerberg...