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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

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Economy

US Inflation Surges in September, Raising Fed Rate Hike Bets

U.S. inflation accelerated in September, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this month as Wall Street reacted to stronger-than-expected consumer price pressures. Data released...

Container Ship Sinks in Strait of Hormuz as Iran Attacks Escalate

A Singapore-registered container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after being hit by an unidentified projectile, triggering a fire and raising fresh concerns over maritime security and global oil shipments....

Wall Street Falls as Hot US Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets

Wall Street stocks closed lower on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected US inflation data revived expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, sending Treasury yields higher and pressuring technology shares. The SP...

US Dollar Hits 18-Month High as Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets

The U.S. dollar surged on Wednesday, approaching an 18-month high after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its October meeting. The U.S....

China Bank Lending Rebounds in September, Beats Forecasts

Chinas new bank lending surged in September, exceeding market expectations as Beijing intensified monetary stimulus measures to support its slowing economy. However, weak annual credit growth continued to highlight subdued...

Politics

US Justice Department Drops Prosecution of Ex-CIA Analyst Sue Mi Terry

The US Justice Department has agreed to defer prosecution of former CIA analyst and White House National Security Council official Sue Mi Terry, who was accused of acting as an unregistered foreign agent for South Korea in...

UN Urges Talks on Lebanon Peacekeeping Mission Extension

United Nations peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix has urged the UN Security Council to begin negotiations over the future of UN peacekeepers in Lebanon as the country seeks to extend the missions mandate beyond...

FBI Denies Report of Kash Patel’s Russia Visit

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) denied reports on Wednesday that Director Kash Patel had traveled to Russia for meetings with Russian intelligence officials, confirming instead that he was attending a law...

Zelenskiy Says Trump’s Support for Russia Is ‘Painful’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed disappointment with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, describing Washingtons apparent shift toward Russia as painful amid the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war. Speaking...

Netanyahu Rejects Preemptive Iran Strike Ahead of Israel Election

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that he opposes launching a preemptive military strike against Iran before Israels October 27 election, while warning Tehran and its regional allies that any attack...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Anduril Valuation Hits $90 Billion in Employee Share Sale

Anduril Industries, a leading U.S. defense technology startup, has launched an employee share tender offer that values the company at approximately $90 billion, according to a Bloomberg report published Wednesday. The...

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Open to Cutting Chip Supply Over Unsafe AI

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company could stop supplying artificial intelligence chips to customers developing dangerous AI software, although he believes many current concerns about AI safety are exaggerated....

Apple Intelligence Set for China Launch in December With iOS 27.3

Apple Inc. is reportedly preparing to launch its Apple Intelligence artificial intelligence platform in mainland China this December, marking a significant step in expanding its AI services into one of its most important...

BlackRock CEO Warns Data Center Ban Could Trigger US Recession

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned that a nationwide halt to data center construction could push the United States into a recession, highlighting the growing importance of artificial intelligence (AI) investment to the US...

AI Crypto Payments Surge to 138 Million Transactions on Base

Artificial intelligence (AI) agents are increasingly using cryptocurrency to purchase digital services, with more than 138 million transactions recorded through the x402 payment protocol on Coinbases Base blockchain,...