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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

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Economy

Marcos Expresses Optimism on Coca-Cola’s $1 Billion Expansion Plans in the Philippines:

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. welcomed the $1 billion expansion plans of the international beverage brand Coca-Cola in the Philippines. The Palace announced this development on Tuesday. Marcos engaged with Coca-Colas...

China’s doom loop: a dramatically smaller (and older) population could create a devastating global slowdown

China has announced that in 2023 its population declined from 1.4118 to 1.4097 billion people. Forecasting by the UN suggests Chinas population will dip to 1.313 billion by 2050 and then down to about 800 million by 2100....

The private sector housing experiment has failed: Ottawa must now step up on social housing

Politicians of all stripes say that housing affordability is a top priority. But few are saying much about social housing the kind thats needed for low-income households in greatest need of affordable rental...

Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here’s why

Wholesale power prices are falling steeply in Australia, following two years of surging prices after the Ukraine war triggered an energy crisis. New data shows annualised spot prices for power in Australias main grid fell...

Mortgage and inflation pain to ease, but only slowly: how 31 top economists see 2024

A panel of 31 leading economists assembled by The Conversation sees no cut in interest rates before the middle of this year, and only a slight cut by December, enough to trim just $55 per month off the cost of servicing a...

Politics

200 million voters, 820,000 polling stations and 10,000 candidates: Indonesia’s massive election, by the numbers

Indonesians are going to the polls to elect a new president today. There are three candidates running, alongside their vice presidential candidates. According to opinion polls, the favourite is Prabowo Subianto, leader...

How Muslim teachings support political dynasties in Indonesia

President Joko Jokowi Widodo is the latest high-profile political figure in Indonesia to attempt to build a political dynasty, loosely defined as a concentration of political power involving family members. Jokowis...

Russia’s next election is likely to put Putin in power for longer than anyone since Peter the Great

Presidential elections will be held in Russia in March. It is inevitable that the incumbent president, Vladimir Putin, will win. Putin has been in power (whether as president or as prime minister) since 2000. If he wins...

Rwanda deal: why the media should focus more on the policy and less on the politics of immigration

Heading into an election year, the governments handling of migration continues to dominate headlines. Much of the coverage has been about the plan to send those who enter the UK without legal paperwork to Rwanda. This...

Biden’s ‘hard look’ at liquefied natural gas exports raises a critical question: How does natural gas fit with US climate goals?

The Biden administration has frozen pending decisions on permit applications to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to countries other than U.S. free trade partners. During this pause, which will last for up to 15...

Science

The brain is the most complicated object in the universe. This is the story of scientists’ quest to decode it – and read people’s minds

In the middle of 2023, a study conducted by the HuthLab at the University of Texas sent shockwaves through the realms of neuroscience and technology. For the first time, the thoughts and impressions of people unable to...

Synthetic human embryos let researchers study early development while sidestepping ethical and logistical hurdles

Embryonic development, also known as embryogenesis, is a cornerstone in understanding the origins of life. But studying this marvel of intricate and layered biological processes in people faces considerable challenges....

Genetic diseases: How scientists are working to make DNA repair (almost) a piece of cake

I have always been fascinated by genetics, a branch of biology that helps explain everything from the striking resemblance between different members of a family to the fact that strawberry plants are frost-resistant. Its...

Orbital resonance − the striking gravitational dance done by planets with aligning orbits

Planets orbit their parent stars while separated by enormous distances in our solar system, planets are like grains of sand in a region the size of a football field. The time that planets take to orbit their suns have no...

Why now is the time to address humanity’s impact on the moon

Humans have always looked at the sky, using the stars as navigation guides or for spiritual storytelling. Every human civilization has looked to the stars and used celestial movements to measure time and find...

Technology

Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 Design Leaked Ahead of Anticipated July Release

The new foldable phones from Samsung are not anticipated to be released until July or August. A seasoned leaker has now unveiled the complete design of the Galaxy Z Fold 6. Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 Renders...

Xiaomi Announces HyperOS Update Timeline: Check if Your Device Is Listed

A notable feature of the Xiaomi 14 series is incorporating the innovative HyperOS software experience. HyperOS serves as a cohesive brand identity for the entirety of Xiaomis ecosystem, and it represents a discernible...

GoTo and TikTok Nearing Full Compliance with Indonesia's Trade Regulations

In a strategic pivot set to redefine Indonesias e-commerce landscape, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GoTo), in partnership with ByteDances TikTok Shop, is on the verge of complete regulatory alignment under Indonesias e-commerce...

Google Funds AI News Articles Amid Gemini's Rise: Evolution or Ethical Dilemma?

When used appropriately, generative AI is a phenomenal instrument; however, a significant concern is that it could be exploited to inundate the internet with articles. Notwithstanding this, Google reportedly remunerates...
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