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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

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Economy

European Stocks Steady as U.S.-Iran War, Euro Zone Data Keep Investors Cautious

European stocks were largely flat on Friday and remained on track for a modest weekly decline as investors monitored the U.S.-Iran war, rising oil prices and upcoming euro zone economic data. The STOXX 600 edged 0.05%...

KOSPI Eyes Best Weekly Gain Since June as Samsung, SK Hynix Rally

South Koreas KOSPI was heading for its strongest weekly performance since early June on Friday, fueled by a powerful rebound in technology and semiconductor stocks as optimism around artificial intelligence demand returned...

France Inflation Rises 2.4% in July as Consumer Prices Increase

Frances consumer prices increased in July 2026, with both monthly and annual inflation measures showing upward movement, according to final data released Friday by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic...

China Automakers Accelerate Global Expansion as Domestic Car Sales Slump

Chinas automakers are rapidly expanding overseas as falling domestic car sales and excess manufacturing capacity push companies such as BYD, Geely and Chery to seek growth beyond the worlds largest auto market. Chinese car...

Asian Currencies Edge Higher as Soft US Inflation Weighs on Dollar

Asian currencies edged higher on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened following softer-than-expected inflation data, which reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. Gains across regional...

Politics

Jared Kushner May Visit Israel for Gaza Talks Next Week

U.S. President Donald Trumps envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, could travel to Israel next week for talks aimed at advancing the administrations Gaza peace plan, according to a source familiar with the matter. Axios...

Albanese Says AUKUS ‘Full Steam Ahead’ After Trump Call

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the AUKUS defence pact remains full steam ahead following a lengthy phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, as Canberra also pushes Washington for a complete exemption...

Trump Orders Major Overhaul of US Navy Shipbuilding

President Donald Trump has signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum directing sweeping changes to U.S. Navy shipbuilding and ship repair programs as part of an effort to rebuild the countrys maritime industrial...

Israel Warned US of Alleged Iran Plot to Assassinate Trump

Israel repeatedly warned the United States over the past year that Iran may have been planning to assassinate President Donald Trump, although U.S. intelligence agencies were unable to independently verify several of the...

Putin Visits Disputed Kuril Island, Sparking Strong Protest From Japan

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the disputed island of Iturup on Thursday, triggering a sharp diplomatic protest from Japan amid longstanding tensions over the Kuril Islands. Known as Iturup in Russia and Etorofu...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Apple Develops China-Specific AI Model With Alibaba as Apple Intelligence Launch Nears

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has reportedly developed a large language model specifically for China in collaboration with Alibaba (HK: 9988), signaling a significant shift in the iPhone makers artificial intelligence strategy...

Goldman Sachs Eyes Investors for Nvidia’s $500 Billion AI Financing Plan

Goldman Sachs is reportedly in discussions with potential investors to participate in Nvidias ambitious $500 billion AI infrastructure financing initiative, as institutional demand for artificial intelligence investments...

LG, Nvidia Expand AI Partnership With Humanoid Robots, AI Factories

LG Corp and Nvidia have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to deepen their strategic partnership across robotics, AI factories and next-generation mobility, LG announced Friday. The agreement will combine LGs...

SMIC Shares Rally as Q2 Profit Surges 262% on Strong Chip Demand

Shares of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) surged on Friday after the Chinese semiconductor foundry delivered strong second-quarter earnings, supported by higher chip demand, improved pricing and...

Anthropic Eyes $6B Decart AI Acquisition Ahead of Mega IPO

Anthropic is reportedly in talks to acquire Nvidia-backed AI startup Decart AI as the Claude developer looks to expand its computing capabilities and address growing demand ahead of a potential public listing. Bloomberg...