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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

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Economy

Gold Prices Surge as Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating

Gold prices climbed sharply on Monday, driven by renewed safe-haven demand after Moodys downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing rising fiscal risks and soaring government debt. The downgrade triggered...

Asian Currencies Stay Flat Despite US Dollar Dip; Yen Rises on BOJ Rate Hike Hopes

Asian currencies remained largely flat on Monday, even as the U.S. dollar weakened following a credit rating downgrade by Moodys. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% after the agency cut the governments credit rating by one...

China’s Economic Growth Slows Amid Tariff Tensions Despite Strong Q1

Chinas industrial output and retail sales growth slowed in April, reflecting mounting pressure from ongoing trade tensions with the United States. Industrial production rose 6.1% year-on-year, outperforming market...

China Property Investment Drops 10.3% Amid Prolonged Real Estate Slump

Chinas property sector continues to decline, with property investment falling 10.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, deepening from a 9.9% drop in the first quarter, according to official data released...

Asian Stocks Slip as US Rating Downgrade and China Data Rattle Markets

Asian stock markets declined on Monday amid growing concerns over global economic health, following a surprise U.S. credit rating downgrade by Moodys and mixed economic data from China. SP 500 futures fell 0.8% in Asian...

Politics

Pope Leo XIV Meets U.S. VP JD Vance Amid Ongoing Immigration Policy Tensions

Pope Leo XIV, formerly Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago, met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Vatican on May 19, 2025. The meeting marked the first high-level U.S.-Vatican encounter since Leos election on May 8....

Trump’s $500B “Golden Dome” Missile Shield Advances Amid Budget Concerns

The Pentagon has submitted multiple proposals to the White House for Golden Dome, a massive U.S. missile defense initiative backed by President Donald Trump. Designed as a space-based shield against advanced missile...

Poland Seizes Boeing Aircraft Tires in EU Sanctions Enforcement

Polish customs officials have seized five metric tons of aircraft tires intended for Boeing (NYSE:BA) civilian planes, citing a violation of European Union sanctions on Russia. The National Revenue Administration announced...

South Korea’s Kim Moon-soo Open to Higher U.S. Military Cost Share

South Koreas conservative presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo said he is open to increasing Seouls contribution toward the cost of stationing U.S. troops, aligning with demands made by U.S. President Donald Trump in recent...

Trump Administration Warns Tariffs Will Rise Without 'Good Faith' Trade Talks

President Donald Trump plans to reinstate higher tariffs on trading partners that fail to negotiate in good faith, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Speaking on Sunday, Bessent said nations unwilling to...

Science

Kennedy Sets September Deadline to Uncover Autism Causes Amid Controversy

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a bold plan to identify the cause of autism by September 2025. Speaking at a cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump, Kennedy declared a global...

AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi Gets US Approval for Bladder Cancer Treatment

AstraZenecas drug Imfinzi (NASDAQ: AZN) has received U.S. approval to treat adult patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer, a significant advancement in cancer therapy. The approval allows Imfinzi to be used in...

Sanofi’s New Hemophilia Drug Qfitlia Gains FDA Approval with Breakthrough Bimonthly Dosing

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Qfitlia, a groundbreaking hemophilia treatment by French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY). Designed for patients aged 12 and older with hemophilia A or B,...

FDA Vaccine Chief Peter Marks Resigns Amid Controversy Over Transparency

Peter Marks, the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) top vaccine official, has resigned after reportedly being forced out by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), according to The Wall Street Journal....

Museums have tons of data, and AI could make it more accessible − but standardizing and organizing it across fields won’t be easy

Ice cores in freezers, dinosaurs on display, fish in jars, birds in boxes, human remains and ancient artifacts from long gone civilizations that few people ever see museum collections are filled with all this and more....

Technology

Nvidia Plans New AI Chips for China Amid U.S. Export Restrictions

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is preparing to launch a new AI chip for China in the coming months that complies with U.S. export controls, according to Nikkei Asia. The upcoming chip will be a downgraded version from its previous...

Alibaba Stock Falls as Trump Administration Scrutinizes Apple AI Deal in China

Alibaba shares dropped 3.8% to HK$118.60 on Monday, leading losses on the Hang Seng Index, which dipped 0.2%. The decline followed a New York Times report that the Trump administration is reviewing a major AI partnership...

Xiaomi Commits $6.9 Billion to Chip Design Over 10 Years

Xiaomi (OTC:XIACF), a leading Chinese smartphone and electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to invest over 50 billion yuan (approximately $6.93 billion) into semiconductor chip design by 2031. The strategic initiative,...

Nvidia Eyes Major Quantum Leap with Investment in PsiQuantum

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is reportedly in advanced talks to invest in quantum computing startup PsiQuantum, signaling a major strategic move into next-gen computing, according to The Information. The deal would...

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to Showcase AI Innovations at Computex 2025

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is set to headline Computex 2025 in Taipei, with a 90-minute keynote on Monday at 11 a.m. local time (0300 GMT). Known for transforming Nvidia from a gaming graphics card maker into a dominant force...