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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

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Economy

U.S. Economy Grows Faster Than Expected in Q2, Inflation Pressures Easing

The U.S. economy expanded faster than anticipated in the second quarter, with a 2.8% annualized growth rate driven by robust consumer spending and business investment. Inflation pressures eased, supporting expectations for...

China Central Bank Surprises Markets with Second Unscheduled Rate Cut This Week

Chinas central bank surprised markets again this week with an unscheduled rate cut, issuing 200 billion yuan in one-year loans at significantly lower rates to stimulate the economy and address sharp stock market...

Turkey Terminates Saudi Deposit, Reflects Growing Economic Confidence

On July 24, Turkeys central bank announced it terminated a $5 billion deposit transaction with Saudi Arabia, signaling increased confidence in rebuilding foreign exchange reserves independently. The move reflects Turkeys...

Japan's Factory Activity Declines in July, but Service Sector Sees Significant Growth

Japans factory activity contracted slightly in July as output and new orders fell, according to a business survey. However, the service sectors expansion led to overall growth in the private sector, with the au Jibun Bank...

China Cuts Interest Rates to Boost Economy Amid Growth Concerns

On July 22, China, the worlds second-largest economy, enacted unexpected interest rate cuts to stimulate its sluggish, debt-laden economy. The Peoples Bank of China lowered key rates by 10 basis points following...

Politics

Key MAGA Ally Warns Donald Trump Fans to Stop Contradicting Themselves

As the political landscape shifts with President Joe Bidens decision to exit the 2024 presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump and his supporters find themselves in a...

Donald Trump's Big Regret? Ex-POTUS Eyes Nikki Haley to Replace 'Dud' VP J.D. Vance Amid Campaign Turmoil

As Joe Biden steps down from the 2024 presidential race, making Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee, Donald Trump faces speculation about a significant shake-up within his own campaign. Reports suggest Trump...

Donald Trump Mocks Kamala Harris with Shocking Nickname: 'I Couldn't Care Less If I Mispronounce It'

Donald Trump intensified his attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris, labeling her a bum and ridiculing the significance of pronouncing her name correctly during a speech in Florida. Speaking at a Turning Point event in...

Kamala Harris Surges as Working Families Party Nominee, Boosting 2024 Campaign Against Donald Trump

Vice President Kamala Harriss 2024 presidential campaign received a significant boost as the Working Families Party (WFP) officially nominated her, ensuring a strategic ballot line in New York and broad organizational...

FBI Confirms Bullet Struck Donald Trump During Assassination Attempt, Ending Speculation

The FBI confirmed late Friday that former President Donald Trump was indeed struck by a bullet during the assassination attempt on July 13, resolving earlier uncertainties about the incident. This update followed Trumps...

Science

SpaceX Falcon 9 Ready to Fly Again Saturday After Resolving Engine Anomaly

SpaceX is set to relaunch its Falcon 9 rocket on Saturday (July 26) after a rare flight anomaly earlier this month. The company identified and fixed an engine issue, ensuring the rockets safety and readiness for its next...

SpaceX Reports 50,000 Collision-Avoidance Maneuvers by Starlink Satellites in Six Months

SpaceXs recent report indicates Starlink satellites executed 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers from December 2023 to May 2024, reflecting increasing traffic in orbit and raising concerns about potential...

SpaceX Unveils Design for ISS Deorbit Vehicle Using Dragon Heritage Hardware

NASAs decision to entrust SpaceX with constructing the ISS deorbit vehicle marks a significant milestone in space technology. SpaceX recently revealed a rendering of the car based on its Dragon spacecraft, which features...

SpaceX Completes Heat Shield Upgrade for Starship Ahead of Critical Flight 5 Test

SpaceX has completed a significant heat shield upgrade for Starship ahead of its fifth test flight. The upgrade aims to improve reentry safety following the issues from the fourth flight. A critical static fire test is...

SpaceX's New EVA Spacesuits Pass Testing for Historic Commercial Spacewalk

SpaceX has finalized acceptance testing of its new EVA spacesuits, marking a significant milestone for the Polaris Program. The suits will facilitate the first commercial spacewalk, led by entrepreneur Jared Isaacman,...

Technology

Bitcoin to Hit $13M! Michael Saylor's Bold Forecast at Bitcoin 2024 Stuns Audience

MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor stunned the Bitcoin 2024 audience with a prediction that Bitcoins price will hit $13 million per coin by 2045. Bold BTC Predictions for 2045 Michael Saylor, a vocal co-founder...

Bitcoin Climbs to $67K: 75% of Short-Term Holders in Profit

Bitcoin has surged to $67,000, placing over 75% of short-term holders in profit and suggesting further bullish momentum. With three-quarters of short-term Bitcoin holders now turning a profit, the cryptocurrency could...

WhatsApp Hits 100 Million Monthly Users in the US, Bridging iPhone and Android Gap

WhatsApp has reached 100 million monthly active users in the United States, marking significant growth in a market dominated by Apples iMessage and traditional texting. This milestone highlights WhatsApps role in bridging...

Sam Altman's Worldcoin (WLD) Soars 10% Amid Latest Strategic Update

Worldcoin (WLD) surged 10% in value, hitting $2.31, following a crucial update from its developers. Major Price Surge Details A tremendous increase in the value of Worldcoin (WLD) has recently occurred. In the past...

$3.9B Bitcoin Futures Expiry Could Trigger Price Drop Below $63K

On July 26, Bitcoin might experience price drops below $63,000 as $3.9 billion in futures contracts expire, raising market concerns. Deribits Significant Bitcoin Futures Expiry On July 26, more than $3.9 billion...