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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

Goldman Sachs: US Dollar Likely to Stay Strong Despite Oil Price Retreat

The U.S. dollar is expected to remain well-supported in the near term despite the recent decline in oil prices, according to a new Goldman Sachs analysis. While lower crude prices have eased concerns about a severe global...

Russia Stocks End at Six-Month Low as MOEX Index Stalls, Gold Surges and Oil Retreats

Russian stocks closed mixed on Saturday, with the MOEX Russia Index finishing flat at 0.00% and touching its lowest level in six months. Investor sentiment remained cautious as gains in select stocks were offset by...

Carney and Macron Strengthen Canada-France Defense Ties Amid US Trade Uncertainty

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron have agreed to expand defense and industrial cooperation, reinforcing Canadas growing partnership with Europe as trade tensions with the United...

IMF Advances Ukraine Loan Program, Clears $690M Disbursement

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine following the latest review of the countrys $8.1 billion loan program, paving the way for a new disbursement of approximately $690...

Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Hopes Ease Supply Concerns

Global oil prices dropped sharply on Friday and were set for significant weekly losses as growing optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement raised expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen,...

Politics

Senior Haitian Security Official Kidnapped as Gang Violence Escalates in Port-au-Prince

A senior Haitian government and police official has been kidnapped in Port-au-Prince, marking one of the most significant abductions of a high-ranking figure in Haiti in recent years amid the countrys worsening security...

Taiwan Launches Intelligence Tip Website Targeting Chinese Informants

Taiwan has launched a new website aimed at encouraging Chinese citizens to share intelligence-related information, marking a significant development in cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. The initiative,...

U.S.-Iran Peace Framework Nears as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Takes Center Stage

The United States and Iran appear to be moving closer to a long-awaited framework agreement aimed at ending months of conflict, although uncertainty remains over the timing of a formal signing. U.S. President Donald Trump...

Trump Says U.S.-Iran Deal Could Be Signed Sunday as Tehran Signals More Talks Needed

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran is expected to be signed on Sunday, potentially leading to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping...

Trump Names James McDonald as New SDNY U.S. Attorney

President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he intends to appoint James McDonald as the next U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY), replacing Jay Clayton in one of the nations most influential...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

SpaceX IPO Sparks Market Optimism as Shares Surge 19% on Trading Debut

SpaceX delivered one of the most significant stock market debuts in recent years, boosting investor confidence and signaling strong demand for high-growth companies despite recent market volatility. The aerospace giant,...

AI Memory Boom Sparks Global Chip Supply Crunch

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is creating a structural shortage in the global memory chip market, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report. The investment bank warns that soaring...

Anthropic Restricts Global Access to AI Models After U.S. Security Review

Anthropic has suspended access to its advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for users outside the United States following new U.S. export restrictions, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The decision highlights...

SpaceX IPO Set for Explosive Debut as Valuation Tops $2.2 Trillion

SpaceX is poised for one of the most historic stock market debuts ever, with shares expected to open nearly 30% above their initial public offering (IPO) price. According to preliminary Nasdaq data, SpaceX stock (NASDAQ:...

Meta AI Strategy Faces Challenges as Zuckerberg Admits Mistakes in Internal Memo

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has acknowledged that the company has made mistakes during its ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) transformation, according to an internal memo obtained by Reuters. In the memo, Zuckerberg...