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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

Gold Prices Slip as Dollar Strengthens Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions and Rising Inflation

Gold prices declined on Monday as a strengthening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation concerns weighed heavily on the precious metal. Spot gold dropped 0.6% to $4,720.67 per ounce, while gold futures slid 0.9% to...

Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Imposes Blockade on Iranian Shipping Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions

Global financial markets were rattled Monday after the United States announced a blockade on Iranian shipping following the breakdown of weekend peace negotiations. The decision has renewed fears over Middle East energy...

Bank of Korea Governor Nominee Warns of Action if Korean Won Weakens Further

South Koreas Bank of Korea governor nominee, Shin Hyun-song, signaled on Monday that policymakers stand ready to intervene should the Korean won experience excessive depreciation. In written statements submitted to...

U.S. Blockades Strait of Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge Past $100

Oil prices climbed sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 8% to $102.93 per barrel after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The move...

U.S. Futures Plunge as Iran Ceasefire Talks Collapse and Hormuz Blockade Looms

U.S. stock index futures dropped sharply Sunday evening after ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran broke down, raising fears of prolonged conflict and further disruptions to global energy markets. The...

Politics

U.S. Blockades Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Tensions

The U.S. military has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern, targeting vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. Ships not bound for Iran will be permitted to...

U.S., Australia, and Philippines Conduct Joint South China Sea Military Drills Amid Rising Tensions With China

The United States, Australia, and the Philippines wrapped up their second trilateral maritime exercises of 2025 in the South China Sea, reinforcing their collective commitment to freedom of navigation and regional security...

Taiwan Insists Government Must Lead Cross-Strait Engagement Amid China's New Incentives

Taiwans top security official has made clear that any response to Chinas latest proposed trade and tourism measures must be government-led, not driven by opposition party diplomacy. National Security Bureau chief Tsai...

Spain's Sanchez Urges China to Take Greater Global Leadership Role During Beijing Visit

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called on China to assume a more meaningful role in addressing pressing global challenges, including climate change, international security, defense, and the fight against inequality....

Hungary's Orban Loses Power as Magyar Wins in Landslide; U.S. Reactions Divided

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, was voted out of power after 16 years in office as Hungarians turned out in record numbers to elect center-right challenger Peter Magyar....

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

AI Deradicalization Tools: How Chatbots Could Help Combat Violent Extremism Online

As artificial intelligence platforms become more deeply embedded in daily life, concerns about their role in enabling dangerous behavior continue to grow. A New Zealand startup is now developing a groundbreaking tool that...

TSMC Posts Record Q1 2026 Profits Driven by Surging AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is on track to deliver its fourth straight quarter of record-breaking earnings, with analysts forecasting a 50% jump in net profit for the first quarter of 2026. The surge is...

OpenAI Addresses Security Vulnerability in macOS App Certification Process

OpenAI disclosed a security concern on Friday involving a third-party developer tool known as Axios, which is connected to the process used to verify the authenticity of its macOS applications. The company confirmed it has...

San Francisco Suspect Arrested After Molotov Cocktail Attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's Home

San Francisco police arrested a 20-year-old suspect Friday following a pre-dawn attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altmans residence in the citys North Beach neighborhood. According to the San Francisco Police Department, an...

SanDisk Joins Nasdaq-100, Replacing Atlassian on April 20

Nasdaq Inc. confirmed late Friday that SanDisk Corporation will enter the Nasdaq-100 Index, taking the spot previously held by Atlassian Corp Plc when markets open on Monday, April 20, 2026. The change signals a broader...