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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

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Economy

Russia Stocks Slip as Mining, Telecoms, and Power Sectors Drag MOEX Lower

Russian stocks closed lower on Saturday, with the MOEX Russia Index dropping 0.98%, weighed down by declines in the mining, telecoms, and power sectors. PhosAgro PJSC (MCX:PHOR) led the gainers, rising 0.85% to 6,633.00....

UK to Invest £600M to Train Builders and Tackle Skills Shortage Amid Housing Push

Britain will invest 600 million ($775 million) to train construction workers and address severe labor shortages threatening its goal to build 1.5 million homes by 2029. The plan, announced by Finance Minister Rachel...

Australia to Extend Energy Bill Relief with $1.8B Boost Ahead of Election

Australias Labor government will inject an additional A$1.8 billion into its energy bill relief scheme in Tuesdays federal budget, aiming to ease cost-of-living pressures ahead of a likely May general election. Prime...

Wall Street Rebounds Slightly as Tariff Concerns Ease and Fed Stays Patient

U.S. stocks closed with modest gains on Friday, reversing earlier losses after President Donald Trump signaled flexibility on upcoming tariffs and hinted at trade talks with China next week. Trump reiterated his intent to...

Greenland Tourism Booms After Trump Comments and New Airport Openings

Greenland is seeing a surge in tourism following U.S. President Donald Trumps renewed interest in the island and the opening of a new international airport in Nuuk. Boat tour operator Ivik Knudsen-Ostermann of Greenland...

Politics

Trump Says Russia-Ukraine War De-escalation 'Somewhat Under Control' Amid Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that efforts to de-escalate the Russia-Ukraine war are somewhat under control, citing ongoing diplomatic talks and temporary agreements. Speaking to Clay Travis, founder of...

Trump Targets Lawyers Suing Government, Sparking Legal Backlash

U.S. President Donald Trump is drawing fire from legal advocacy groups after ordering sanctions against lawyers and firms filing lawsuits against his administration. In a memo to Attorney General Pam Bondi, Trump claimed...

Social Security Chief Reverses Course After Court Rebuke Over Elon Musk Data Access

The head of the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA), Leland Dudek, has reversed plans to shut down the agency following a sharp rebuke from a federal judge. Dudek, appointed by former President Donald Trump,...

Trump's Defense Secretary Mocks Judge Over Transgender Troop Ruling Amid Rising Tensions

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth mocked U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes after she blocked President Donald Trumps ban on transgender military service, intensifying tensions between the administration and the federal judiciary....

Protests Erupt as Turkish Court Weighs Terror Charges Against Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu

Turkish prosecutors have called for the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and four aides on terrorism and corruption charges, sparking mass protests across the country. Imamoglu, a leading opposition figure and...

Science

What are the chances an asteroid will impact Earth in 2032?

For a few days in mid-February, headlines around the world buzzed about the potential for an asteroid to hit the Earth in 2032 specifically, asteroid 2024 YR4. The chance of this impact rose to a high of 3.1 per cent on...

A new study reveals the structure of violent winds 1,300 light years away

The planet WASP-121b is extreme. Its a gas giant almost twice as big as Jupiter orbiting extremely close to its star50 times closer than the Earth does around the Sun. WASP-121b is so close to its star that tidal forces...

What’s the shape of the universe? Mathematicians use topology to study the shape of the world and everything in it

When you look at your surrounding environment, it might seem like youre living on a flat plane. After all, this is why you can navigate a new city using a map: a flat piece of paper that represents all the places around...

Asteroid has a very small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but a collision could devastate a city

In December 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted a new asteroid streaking through the sky, which they named 2024 YR4. Whats significant about this 100m-wide space rock is that it has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2023....

Leonardo da Vinci’s incredible studies of human anatomy still don’t get the recognition they deserve

Wikimedia, CC BY-SA The mere mention of Leonardo da Vinci evokes genius. We know him as a polymath whose interests spanned astronomy, geology, hydrology, engineering and physics. As a painter, his Mona Lisa and Last Supper...

Technology

China Backs Viral AI Startup Manus Amid Global Buzz and Domestic Rollout

Chinese AI startup Manus is gaining momentum after registering its AI assistant Monica for domestic release and receiving its first feature on state broadcaster CCTV. This signals growing support from Beijing as it looks...

Tesla to Produce 5,000 Optimus Robots in 2024 Amid EV Market Challenges

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) plans to manufacture 5,000 units of its Optimus humanoid robot this year, CEO Elon Musk revealed during a recent all-hands meeting. Despite Tesla shares plunging 41.5% year-to-date, Musk encouraged...

Instagram Experiences Widespread Outage, Thousands Affected in the U.S.

Instagram, owned by Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), suffered a major outage on Thursday evening, leaving thousands of users in the U.S. unable to access the platform. According to Downdetector, a site that tracks service...

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Reconsiders Quantum Computing at GTC 2025

At NVIDIAs GTC 2025 conference, CEO Jensen Huang took a surprising turn on his earlier skepticism toward quantum computing. Hosting two panels with leaders from 12 top quantum companies, including IonQ and D-Wave Quantum...

Nvidia to Invest Hundreds of Billions in U.S. Chip Supply Chain

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on U.S.-made chips and electronics over the next four years, CEO Jensen Huang revealed in an interview with the Financial Times. The company expects to...