Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental Evaluation Series

US economy loses momentum in 2015—a glimpse on fundamentals

Feb 02, 2016 22:09 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

While looking at the overall economic situation of US economy, it seems like US economy lost its momentum by the end of 2015. Revised data confirms that the U.S. economy expanded at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Safe-haven bond yields to gradually rise as Fed aims to ease bubbles in the sovereign bond market

Feb 01, 2016 11:25 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

The Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy only by as much as markets allow without major turmoil. The Fed will try to avoid any further asset price inflation and ease any bubbles that have already emerged, such as in...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Weak Japanese fundamentals likely to put downward pressure on yen

Jan 13, 2016 10:11 am UTC| Commentary

The Japanese yen began 2016 on a high note, as it strengthened against the U.S. dollar on elevated global financial market uncertainties and consequential safe-haven flows. However, inadequate structural reform, enormous...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

G10 FX high correlation to policy divergence makes policy setting difficult for central bankers

Jan 08, 2016 10:25 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Since 2012, FX sensitivity to policy viz. a viz. interest rate expectations divergence has made it extremely tough for central bankers to conduct monetary policies. BOJ QQE - In 2012, Bank of launched its massive...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Outperforming outlier Germany could pose long term challenge for ECB policy

Jan 06, 2016 11:02 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Yesterdays better than employment report from Germany shows it remains an outperforming outlier in Euro Zone. German economy despite facing worst of migrant crisis managed to expand both its manufacturing and services...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

Fundamental driving forces of NZD/USD forecasts in 2016

Dec 30, 2015 08:08 am UTC| Insights & Views

NZD should depreciate again on rate solidity from both sides as the Fed hikes and RBNZ eases another 50 bps (only 25 bps is priced). The newer theme is material deterioration in the current account deficit from -3.5% to...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

EUR/HUF likely to trend lower in long term as Hungary’s fundamentals remain robust

Dec 30, 2015 06:41 am UTC| Commentary

In Hungary, the gross government debt (% GDP) is seen declining. NBH estimates it to reach 75.6% and 73.9% by YE 2015 and 2016, respectively from 76.9% in 2014. As per AKK, the share of FX in public debt stands at 32%,...