Jeopardy of even more supply returning as normalization in crude markets continues to be deferred. The disproportion in the global crude market has been diminishing in H2 of 15, but the hope for a rebalancing in 2016 continues to suffer serious setbacks.

At a minimum, US crude oil exports now require the clearing of any US inventory overhang once supply and demand finally do rebalance, which should defer any normalization in oil prices, as well as the timing for when prices will incentivize US production to grow again.

The US production should prove more resilient than most models originally indicated. Most of the US declines thus far have come from legacy production, stripper wells or low tier shale plays, not the core plays. As we look to 2016, the prospect for greater declines seems to be diminishing.

The source of 2015's declines are unlikely to provide the same benefit, while many shale wells will be farther down the decline curve. Moreover, efficiency gains, bad behavior and a struggle for survival should all help to support US production.

The hope is to position the company to recapitalize upon recovery. Momentum from spent capital in the Gulf of Mexico is also lifting US production.

The return of at least 500 kb/d from Iran in Q1 of 16 with the prospect of additional supply later in the year or subsequent years.

Demand growth is likely to remain in snail's pace from its sizzling speed in 2015. At a minimum, tougher YoY comparisons should keep YoY refinery runs below the 2 mmb/d pace seen this year.