Market Roundup
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.8%,0.1% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) -0.4% previous
•US Feb Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 2.2%,-7.4% previous
•US Feb Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.7%, 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Feb Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.4%,1.2% forecast,-6.1% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 3.9%,3.4% previous
•US Jan S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) -0.1%,-0.3% previous
•US Jan S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 6.6%, 6.6% forecast,6.1% previous
•US Jan House Price Index (YoY) 6.3%,6.6% previous
• US Mar Richmond Manufacturing Shipments -14,-15 previous
• US Mar CB Consumer Confidence 104.7,106.9 forecast,106.7 previous
• US Mar Richmond Services Index -7 ,-16 previous
• US Mar Texas Services Sector Outlook -5.5,-3.9 previous
• US Mar Dallas Fed Services Revenues 5.2 previous
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.1%,2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:00 New Zealand March ANZ Business Confidence 34.7 previous
•00:00 New Zealand March NBNZ Own Activity 29.5% previous
•00:00 Australia Feb MI Leading Index (MoM) -0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Feb Weighted mean CPI (YoY) 3.50% forecast,3.40% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 01:00 Japan BoJ Tamura Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Tuesday as investors gauged the likely path of interest rates from the Federal Reserve ahead of key inflation data due later in this holiday-shortened week. This week's economic data calendar is fairly light ahead of the Federal Reserve's favoured inflation measure on Friday, which could provide clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook.The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index is seen rising 0.3% in February, which would keep the annual pace at 2.8%. The euro was little changed at $1.0832. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0876(20SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0800(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0763 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday as markets continued to digest the implications of last week's central bank meetings, including the Bank of England's. Current market pricing shows roughly a 65% chance the British central bank starts cutting rates by its June meeting, with a very small chance of a move at its next meeting in May, a slight decline from the day before.Markets last week had seen August as the most likely date for the first BoE rate cut, but traders adjusted their expectations after the central bank said at its Thursday meeting that inflation is moving in the right direction for interest rate cuts. The pound was last up 0.17% against the dollar at $1.2658, extending gains from the previous day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2673(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729 (March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2567(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, with the currency holding near a three-month low as the Bank of Canada highlighted Canada's recent history of weak productivity growth. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said businesses urgently needed to boost investment to increase productivity, adding this would help insulate the economy against the threat of inflation. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell as investors took a more mixed view toward the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks. U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.4% lower at $81.62 a barrel. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3585 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.61 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3553 to 1.3590. On Friday, the currency touched a three-month low at 1.3614. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3611 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3626 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3558(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3511 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar little changed against yen on Tuesday after Japan’s finance minister said that he would not rule out any measures to cope with the weakening currency. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that rapid currency moves are undesirable. That came after Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda on Monday warned against speculators trying to sell off the yen. Traders continue to focus on the still-stark interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world, particularly the United States. A break past 151.94 per dollar, hit in October 2022, would take the Japanese currency to its weakest since 1990. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 ended a choppy session at a record closing high on Tuesday, driven primarily by banks, while French liquid products distributor Rubis marked its best day in over three decades.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.76percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.41 percent.
Wall Street turned modestly lower in late trade on Tuesday, mostly in sync with subdued global share market movements.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.08% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.28% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.42 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields edged up on Tuesday after durable goods orders rebounded in February, pointing to a resilient U.S. economy, as the market awaits key inflation data later this week to gauge when the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates.
The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 2.7 basis points at 4.614, while the yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 1 basis points to 4.263%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Tuesday, as expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve firmed, while investors waited for data due later in the week for underlying inflation trends that will help gauge the timing of these cuts.
Spot gold rose 0.2%, to $2,176.59 per ounce, by 02:01 p.m. EDT (1801 GMT), having jumped as much as 1.3% earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.04% higher at $2177.2.
Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as investors took a more mixed view toward the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks.
Front-month Brent crude futures due to expire on Thursday settled down 50 cents at $86.25 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $81.62.
The more actively traded Brent futures for June settled down 33 cents at $85.96.
