Market Roundup
•UK Feb Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Feb PPI Input (MoM) -0.4%, 0.2% forecast,-0.8% previous
•UK Feb RPI (YoY) 4.5% , 4.5% forecast, 4.9% previous
•UK Feb RPI (MoM) 0.8%, 0.7% forecast,-0.3% previous
•UK Feb CPI (YoY) 3.4% ,3.5% forecast, 4.0% previous
•UK Feb Core RPI (MoM) 0.7%,-0.4% previous
•UK Feb CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast,-0.6% previous
•UK Feb CPI, n.s.a 132.30, 131.50 previous
•UK Feb Core RPI (YoY) 3.5%, 3.8% previous
•UK Feb Core CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, -0.9% previous
•UK Feb Core CPI (YoY) 4.5%, 4.6% forecast, 5.1% previous
•UK House Price Index (YoY) -0.6%,-0.7% forecast, -1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.217M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW)1.9% previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.350M forecast,-5.662M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories-0.220M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.087M forecast,0.888M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.241M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.285M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.900M forecast,-1.536M previous
•18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast,5.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
•18:00 US FOMC Statement
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday as dollar pushed higher as traders braced for what could be a crucial Federal Reserve meeting later in the day. Key focus remains on the Fed's monetary policy meeting, where the central bank is considered certain to keep interest rates on hold, while all eyes will be on its dot plot for more clues on the future path for rates. The Fed is not predicted to cut borrowing costs, but fresh economic projections could signal fewer interest rate cuts and a later start to the policy easing than previously expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0885 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0905(Match 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0821 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against a strengthening dollar on Wednesday after soft British inflation data. British inflation slowed in February, keeping the Bank of England (BoE) on track to start cutting interest rates in the months ahead. British finance minister Jeremy Hunt said the figures would "open the door" for a BoE monetary easing. Markets slightly increased their bets on BoE monetary easing, pricing a roughly 63% chance of a first move in June from 58% before the data.Sterling was down 0.2% versus the dollar at $1.2696, while the euro was flat at 85.39 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2774(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2669(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2594(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors looked ahead at the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting later in the day. The Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement is due at 1800 GMT and Powell's press conference at 1830 GMT. With the Fed expected to hold rates steady, traders are awaiting its economic and interest rate projections for the rest of the year. Traders are currently pricing in a 55% chance of a rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8912 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8865(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8834(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision to exit its negative interest rates policy left yen weaker. Japan's historic shift away from negative interest rates and massive stimulus ushered in a new era of economic policy, analysts expect the BOJ's monetary normalisation to proceed at a glacial pace. That has meant an extended lifespan for the popular carry trades where investors borrow yen to buy higher yielding currencies. The dollar was up 0.6% on the day to 151.70 yen, a fresh four-month high, and close to the 152 level that prompted Japanese authorities to intervene in FX markets in late 2022. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.88(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.63 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.74 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 149.70(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares moved lower on Wednesday, weighed down by a sell-off in luxury stocks over sales warning from Kering, while investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve's monetary policy outcome due today..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.63 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices drifted lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar firmed, while traders awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for more clues on prospects of rate cuts.
Spot gold dipped 0.2% to $2,153.59 per ounce by 1036 GMT
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after hitting multi-month highs in the previous session, as investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policy announcement later in the day.
Brent crude futures for May fell 62 cents, or 0.71%, to $86.76 a barrel by 1028 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery , which expire on Wednesday's settlement, fell 71 cents, or 0.85%, to $82.76 a barrel.
