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The Indian 10-year bond yields are likely to decline to 6 percent for the first time since 2009 next year (2017) as subdued inflation and negative demonetisation effect to pressurize RBI for rate cut in February.
India’s inflation continued to remain subdued during the month of November, exerting deeper pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to undertake easing policy in the next 2-day bi-monthly monetary policy scheduled to be held on February 7.
India’s consumer prices tumbled in November because of weak food prices. Consumer price inflation of India slowed to 3.63 percent year-on-year in November, owing to the drops in prices of food. The downward surprise was mainly because of fruits and vegetables.
Additionally, India’s wholesale price inflation fell during the month of November, at the slowest pace in five months. However, it came in higher than what market participants had priced in initially. India's wholesale prices rose 3.15 percent year-on-year in November, its slowest pace in five months, data released by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed Wednesday. The data compared with a 3.12 percent annual rise forecast by economists in an FxWirePro poll.
Moreover, the country’s inflation is anticipated to have eased further in coming months due to failure of demonetisation. This masterstroke brought in a pool of electronic transactions that deprived many of hand-to-hand cash exchanges, thus leaving the citizens in a wide array of lower spends overall.
The lower spread of cash transactions, coupled with a maximum limit on ATM withdrawals has pressurized the prices of many retail commodities, including luxuries and real estate prices as well.
The 2017-18 Union Budget, expected to be unveiled by February 1, 2017 is likely to incorporate a slash in the income tax bracket as well, allowing consumers to combat the negative effects of demonetization. The policy implementation is expected to boost consumer spending, allowing door for some recovery in inflation expectations.
India’s 10-year yield declined 168 basis points (21.37 percent) in 2016 and is currently trading at 6.58; meanwhile, USD/INR traded at 68.10, down -0.15 percent at 6:25GMT.
