Emerging Market Crisis Series

Demographics likely to continue weighing on Russia’s potential growth

Feb 03, 2016 09:46 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Russias growth is likely to be pulled down due to demographics. The working-age population is likely to continue reducing by 0.3%-0.7% y/y. The participation rate is expected to decline due to ageing of population. A...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Esther George – return of a hawk

Feb 03, 2016 09:37 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

A well-known hawk and dissenter of FED policy is back on the core-committee of FOMC this year, who will be a decision maker in the board. In the past, Ms. George has remained critique of ultra-loose monetary policy of...

China Crisis Series

RBNZ likely to ease monetary policy by 25bps in March

Feb 03, 2016 09:34 am UTC| Commentary

New Zealands employment was better than expected in the fourth quarter, as a decline in participation dragged the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent as compared to previous 6.0 percent. The labour cost index was firm at 1.6...

What’s the point of forward guidance, if it misleads?

Feb 03, 2016 08:56 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Bank of Japans (BOJ) last weeks action is clearly providing evidence that central bankers of the world are relying more on shock therapy than providing actual guidance. So the question is coming is the era of forward...

Russia’s CPI likely to slow to around 9% by mid-2016, 7.3% by late 2016 on decelerating core inflation

Feb 03, 2016 08:42 am UTC| Commentary

Russias economy contracted sharply in 9m15 with GDP declining 3.7% due to international sanctions, terms of trade shock, tightening of monetary policy and the countrys countersanctions. Russias domestic demand has been...

China Crisis Series

Is China dragging Australia?

Feb 03, 2016 08:05 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Balance of Trade data released today from Australian Bureau of Statistics painted another bleak picture for Australian economy. Trade deficit widened to lowest since last April. For December, Trade deficit came at $3.535...

Oil in Global Economy Series

US crude supply likely to drop by 0.5mb/d in 2017

Feb 03, 2016 07:37 am UTC| Commentary

A stronger dollar, a supply glut and warm weather depressed crude oil prices. If the warmer than normal weather conditions continue, oil prices are expected to further face downward pressure. More product and build up of...