CHF, growth with no inflation in near term
Aug 10, 2015 08:53 am UTC| Commentary
There is now hard evidence of something we have previously heard anecdotally, since January, interest in CHF has dropped off sharply. Average daily turnover in CHF showed a noticeable fall in the latest semiannual FX...
Aug 10, 2015 08:46 am UTC| Commentary
Longer-term, there are two key risks for GBP, the UKs unsustainable current account deficit (6.2% of GDP) and the EU referendum, promised for end-2017 at the latest.Both are manageable, however. The current account deficit...
South African Rand: 1-3 Month Outlook
Aug 10, 2015 08:20 am UTC| Commentary
SARB opted to hike its key reference rate by 25bp to 6% on July 23. The market is pricing at least one more hike before the end of 2015. While we do believe USD/ZAR may drift higher towards 12.90 in the very near term and...
BOE tightening cycle likely to start in November
Aug 10, 2015 07:58 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks
Markets clearly perceive the cyclical positions of the US and UK to be similar and a gentle increase in US short rate expectations has been accompanied by rising expectations that the MPC cold start to unwind stimulus in...
Higher US rates to be another big leg down to JPY in long term
Aug 10, 2015 07:56 am UTC| Commentary
Japans domestic public sector flows drove the move from 100 to the 120s in 2014. Prior to that, the overseas sector fuelled the move from 80 to 100.The sector which is expected to drive the third leg of JPY selling has so...
Russian Ruble: 1-3 Month Outlook
Aug 10, 2015 07:32 am UTC| Commentary
On July 29, CBR announced it will stop its daily FX interventions to build up its reserves due to increased volatility in the domestic FX market. The day before the announcement, USD/RUB breached 60 for the first time...
Yen to drift lower in near term
Aug 10, 2015 07:21 am UTC| Commentary
Although USD/JPY drifted back to the top of its recent range around 125 in July, broad USD strength was the main driver, with JPY gaining on most G10 crosses."Although the prospects for policy at the September 17 FOMC...