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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Vitol to Ship First U.S. Naphtha Cargo to Venezuela Under New Oil Supply Deal

Commodities trading giant Vitol is preparing to load the first shipment of U.S. naphtha bound for Venezuela this weekend, marking a significant step in efforts to revive the countrys oil industry. According to sources...

U.S. Signals Potential Venezuela Sanctions Relief to Boost Oil Sales and IMF Re-Engagement

The United States may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela as early as next week to facilitate oil sales and economic stabilization, according to comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview with...

Russia Stock Market Ends Flat as Commodities Rise and Ruble Strengthens

Russian stocks closed flat on Saturday, reflecting a quiet session on the Moscow Exchange as market activity remained muted across key sectors. At the close in Moscow, the MOEX Russia Index finished unchanged at 0.00%,...

Trump Administration Targets Mortgage-Backed Securities to Ease Housing Affordability Crunch

The Trump administration has launched a new effort to support the U.S. housing market by stepping into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases, aiming to counterbalance the Federal Reserves ongoing reduction of such...

G7 Finance Ministers to Meet in Washington on Critical Minerals Supply Chains

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that Australia and several other countries will participate in a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies in Washington on Monday,...

Politics

Myanmar Military-Run Election Draws Criticism as Voters Head to Polls Amid Ongoing Conflict

Voters in conflict-ravaged Myanmar queued on Sunday to cast ballots in the second phase of a military-organized election, an exercise widely criticized by the international community as an attempt to legitimize junta rule...

U.S. Military Launches Multiple Airstrikes in Syria Targeting Islamic State

The United States military confirmed on Saturday that it carried out multiple airstrikes across Syria targeting the Islamic State (ISIS), as part of an ongoing operation launched in December following a deadly attack on...

Bangladesh Signals Willingness to Join International Stabilization Force in Gaza

Bangladesh has formally expressed its interest in joining a proposed international stabilization force that may be deployed in Gaza, signaling a potential new role in global peacekeeping efforts related to the ongoing...

Nicaragua Frees Political Prisoners Amid Growing U.S. Pressure on Latin American Governments

Nicaraguas government announced the release of dozens of inmates from its national penitentiary system, a move that came just one day after the United States publicly demanded the freedom of more than 60 political...

Norwegian Nobel Institute Clarifies Nobel Peace Prize Rules After Trump Remarks

The Norwegian Nobel Institute has firmly stated that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred, shared, or revoked, responding to recent remarks by Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado suggesting she...

Science

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Technology

Elon Musk Says X Will Open-Source Its Algorithm Amid EU Scrutiny

Elon Musk announced on Saturday that X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, will publicly release its recommendation algorithm, including the full code behind organic content and advertising post...

China’s AI Sector Pushes to Close U.S. Tech Gap Amid Chipmaking Challenges

China is accelerating efforts to narrow its technological gap with the United States, driven by increased risk-taking, innovation, and strong policy support for artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Leading Chinese...

Supreme Court to Hear Cisco Appeal on Alien Tort Statute and Human Rights Liability

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal by Cisco Systems that could significantly reshape how American companies are held liable for alleged human rights abuses committed overseas. The case centers on the scope...

FCC Approves Expansion of SpaceX Starlink Network With 7,500 New Satellites

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved SpaceXs request to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, marking a major step forward in the companys mission to expand global...

xAI Cash Burn Highlights the High Cost of Competing in Generative AI

Elon Musks artificial intelligence startup, xAI, is rapidly emerging as a major player in the generative AI race, but new reports highlight the enormous financial costs behind that ambition. According to Bloomberg News,...