$50 per barrel no new norm on sustainable basis

Brent has been trending generally sideways since the end of August, fluctuating for most of the time between $48 and $50 per barrel. 

"However, we do not see the $50 mark as the "new $100 mark" - that is to say a price level at which the oil price will settle long-term - but rather as a stopping point ahead of the price surge we envisage in the coming months", says Commerzbank. 

After all, the current massive oversupply is not the new norm, market participants are believed to be increasingly coming to realize. Incidentally, the VW scandal and potentially lower demand for diesel vehicles could result in increased oil demand growth in the long term, as diesel engines are generally significantly more fuel-efficient than gasoline ones.