No constructive message from China’s September trade data

Oct 12, 2015 20:28 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Chinas trade growth bounced back slightly in August from July. However, the rebound is not expected to be sustained. The gauge of export orders in the September PMI report ticked up to 47.9 in September, but this was still...

A Zombification could weigh on the long-term growth prospect of Chinese economy

Oct 12, 2015 18:38 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Chinas state-owned banks will support its highly indebted companies. China should thus avoid a recession. However, Japan shows that keeping many seemingly dead companies (zombies) afloat weighs on the long-term growth...

China’s auto sales tax cut is a key economic and policy move worth monitoring

Oct 11, 2015 11:23 am UTC| Commentary Economy

In an effort to revive the countrys auto sector, Chinas State Council announced on September 30th that the sales tax on the purchase of vehicles with engine capacity of less than 1.6 liters (i.e. most passenger cars) would...

German engine in headwind

Oct 09, 2015 15:03 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

German economic data have started to show weakness and , more softness is on cards. This is because the German economy faces headwinds from two important channels: (1) the turmoil in emerging markets and China together...

US import prices decline modestly in September

Oct 09, 2015 14:23 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

US import prices fell less than expected in September, with the upside surprise relative to forecast coming from both petroleum and non-petroleum prices. Total import prices declined a modest 0.1% m/m, less than our...

Net exports contribution in euro area GDP likely to sink

Oct 09, 2015 12:17 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

A temporary decline in German car market shares abroad is expected as a result of the VW scandal, although the macroeconomic effect should be limited both in size and over time. The euro area exports are likely to grow...

Euro area recovery remains on track

Oct 09, 2015 10:59 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Economic activity in euro area gained further momentum in the first half of 2015, supported by acceleration in the periphery. Past euro depreciation boosted export market shares, and euro area exports grew significantly...