A gloomy outlook persists in Singapore

The economy has averted a technical recession with GDP growth in 3Q15 expected to register a mere 0.1% (QoQ saar, +1.4% YoY) based on the latest advance GDP estimates. But ultimately with such near zero growth pace, the outlook remains gloomy. That is no reason to pop the champagne. And tomorrow's non-oil domestic export (NODX) growth for September will likely add to the woes. The headline number is expected to register a decline of 3.9% (YoY). Sequentially, a modest 0.6% (MoM sa) increase is projected. 

It's not exactly a great outcome for an economy that is so dependent on trade. Total trade is about 2.5x of GDP while total exports (including re-exports) are 1.3x of GDP. In fact, the value of NODX in the first eight months of the year grew just a mere 1.3% compared to the same period last year. Plainly, if external demand is weak, growth is weak in Singapore. That's the reality in this small and open economy. So, absence a strong rebound in the global economy in the near term, export and growth performance will remain lacklustre.