Market Roundup
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.50K , 19.80K previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 7.8%, 8.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 Japan Trade Balance (Jun) -120.0B forecast, -391.8B previous
• 23:50 Japan Exports (YoY) (Jun) 18.6% forecast, 16.8% previous
• 23:50 Japan Adjusted Trade Balance -0.56T forecast, -0.09T previous
• 23:50 Imports (YoY) (Jun) 21.0% forecast,12.5% previous
•02:00 Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Jun)-0.0% previous
•04:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Jun) 5.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as dollar firmed as investors assessed conflict in the Middle East . The U.S. intensified its military campaign with fresh strikes on Iran's coastal defenses and missile sites, while Iran warned it could disrupt regional energy exports. German investor morale rose much more than expected in July as a government reform package brightened the mood despite uncertainty about the conflict in Iran, a survey found on Tuesday.The indicator of economic sentiment more than doubled, to 26.3 points from 10.5 points the month before, the ZEW economic research institute said. This week, focus will also be on commentary from European Central Bank policymakers at their monetary policy meeting where they are expected to hold interest rates steady.Market participants are pricing in at least one 25-basis-point hike by end-2026 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors weighed the prospect of higher government spending and how new finance minister John Healey will finance it. The appointment of Healey, a former defence secretary, was announced after the close of UK markets on Monday. He had not been seen as a leading candidate for the key role in new Prime Minister Andy Burnham's cabinet, but his appointment was generally seen as positive.Investors were also digesting the latest UK economic data, which analysts said was positive for the new finance minister as it suggested the Bank of England may have room to ease interest rates over the next year.British annual wage growth held at 3.4% in the three months to May, matching economists' forecasts, while UK public borrowing declined to £16 billion ($21.5 billion) in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened on Tuesday as the threat of additional U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods led to investors reducing bets on Bank of Canada interest rate hikes this year..U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports, citing Canada's treatment of U.S. cars, alcohol, and dairy products. The new tariffs take effect on August 19.The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, as easing inflation and stronger economic activity reduce the need for further policy changes.Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes raised fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4114(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4147(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4053(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4003(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Tuesday as the latest round of attacks in the Middle East sent oil prices higher and stoked concerns about persistent inflation.Optimism that adurable peace deal could be reached between the U.S. and Iran had pushed crude prices down as May began, and recent subdued inflation data had cooled market expectations of a rate hike at its policy meeting next week.But oil prices have reversed in recent days as tensions in the region have flared, and comments from multiple Fed officials, including Chairman Kevin Warsh, have flagged concerns about inflation pressures.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.67(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 162.16(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 160.61(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Tuesday as reports of U.S.-Iran mediation efforts lowered oil prices, while investors assessed fresh corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.66 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.28 percent.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, led by the Nasdaq, as a rally in semiconductor stocks offset Middle East tensions and tariff concerns ahead of major tech earnings.
Dow Jones closed up by 0,.70% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.88% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.31% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday as hopes of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough eased energy price concerns and reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve.
Spot gold gained 1.6% to $4,068.29 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled 1.5% higher at $4,076.40.
Oil prices climbed about 2% on Tuesday to a five-week high, on worries that energy supply disruptions could worsen in the Middle East due to more attacks between the U.S. and Iran and a threatened naval blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis.
Brent futures rose $1.79, or 2.0%, to settle at $91.01 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.68, or 2.0%, to settle at $84.91.
